FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Decline Broadly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Crude oil prices touch 15-month low.
- Metals prices mostly weaken.
- Lumber prices improve.
The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) fell 2.1% (-19.1% y/y) during the four weeks ended March 17 to the lowest level since early-November. The index has fallen 5.3% since early-February. The decline accompanied a 0.1% improvement in factory sector output in February which followed a 1.3% January increase.
Prices in the crude oil & benzene group weakened 5.3% (-13.3% y/y) in the last four weeks. The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 9.4% in four weeks to $71.75 per barrel and fell 29.7% y/y, while the price of the petro-chemical benzene declined 8.7% (-5.5% y/y). Excluding crude oil & benzene, the industrial commodity price index weakened 1.6% (-18.3% y/y) over the last four weeks.
Metals group prices fell 3.6% (-25.6% y/y) in the last four weeks. Zinc prices declined 5.6% (-23.6% y/y) while aluminum prices fell 5.7% (-32.6% y/y). The cost of scrap copper declined 2.5% in the last four weeks (-13.5% y/y) and tin prices weakened 16.7% (-47.7% y/y). Lead prices slipped 0.1% (-8.6% y/y) in the last four weeks. Working higher, the cost of steel scrap strengthened 8.4% (-27.9% y/y) in four weeks.
Prices in the textile group slipped 0.9% during the last four weeks and fell 8.3% y/y. Cotton prices declined 5.8% and weakened 34.3% y/y. The cost of burlap improved 0.1% (-17.0% y/y) in the last four weeks.
The miscellaneous group price index eased 0.1% (-23.5% y/y) during the last four weeks. Framing lumber prices rose 3.7% (-63.7% y/y) but the cost of natural rubber fell 1.7% (-16.5% y/y) in four weeks.
The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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