Global| Mar 14 2022FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Continue to Strengthen
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Steel scrap leads recent increases.
- Crude oil prices jump.
- Lumber prices remain strong.
The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) increased 6.5% during the four weeks ended March 11 and increased 20.9% during the last year. The level of the price index remains at a record high for the series which dates back to January 1985.
Prices in the metals group rose 12.8% in the last four weeks, up 42.3% during the last year. The cost of steel scrap rose by roughly one-third in four weeks and by one-half y/y. Aluminum prices followed with a 14.7% four-week gain and have risen by nearly three-quarters y/y. Zinc prices improved 10.8% in the last four weeks and 47.2% y/y. Copper scrap prices increased 4.0% in four weeks and by 14.8% y/y.
Crude oil & benzene costs surged 13.1% in the last four weeks and by one-third y/y. Crude oil costs alone gained 28.0% in four weeks (77.3% y/y) as the cost of crude rose to $115.64 per barrel, up roughly three-quarters y/y. The price of the petro-chemical benzene improved 17.5% during the last four weeks and by 42.9% y/y. Excluding crude oil, industrial commodity prices rose 5.4% in the last four weeks and gained 18.1% in the last year.
Prices in the miscellaneous group increased by 4.5% during the last four weeks (10.2% y/y). Framing lumber prices improved 8.1% (27.3% y/y) and natural rubber prices increased 10.6% (-0.8% y/y).
In the textile group, prices eased 0.8% during the last four weeks but rose 7.5% y/y. Cotton prices fell 6.0% (+40.3% y/y) in four weeks. The cost of burlap, used for sacks, bags and gardening, improved 2.1% in the last four weeks and rose by 19.4% y/y.
Industrial commodity prices should remain strong. The National Association for Business Economics expects a 4.1% rise in industrial output in 2022 and a 2.6% increase in 2023.
The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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