FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Are Little Changed
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Metal & textile costs rise further.
- Prices decline elsewhere.
- Lumber prices post another big decline.
The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) improved 0.1% during the four weeks ended April 22 and rose 14.7% over the last year.
Prices in the metals group increased 1.9% in the last four weeks, up 35.1% during the last year. The gain was led by a 13.2% increase (59.1% y/y) in the price of zinc which is used in batteries. Tin and lead prices also rose. These increases were offset by a 7.8% decline (+34.9% y/y) in aluminum prices. The price of steel scrap fell 1.6% (+47.3% y/y). Copper scrap prices eased 0.2% in four weeks but were up 9.4% y/y.
Textile group prices improved 0.8% (10.2% y/y) during the last four weeks, led by cotton prices which increased 6.2%, up by two-thirds y/y. The cost of burlap, used for sacks, bags and gardening, eased 1.5% in the last four weeks but rose 15.8% during the last year.
Offsetting the increases was a 1.9% decline (+17.4% y/y) in the crude oil & benzene group prices. Crude oil costs alone fell 5.6% in four weeks yet were up roughly two-thirds y/y. The per barrel price of crude oil of $105.06 was 9.1% below the $115.64 per barrel high in the second week of March. The price of the petro-chemical benzene rose 1.1% during the last four weeks, but was 16.6% lower y/y. Excluding crude oil, industrial commodity prices rose 0.5% during the last four week and gained 12.1% in the last year.
In the miscellaneous group, prices fell 1.1% during the last four weeks (+1.1% y/y). Framing lumber prices weakened 13.2% in four weeks and by 26.9% y/y. This decline was countered by a 5.8% increase (11.4% y/y) in natural rubber prices.
Industrial commodity prices should remain firm. The National Association for Business Economics expects a 4.1% rise in industrial output in 2022 and a 2.6% increase in 2023.
The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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