FIBER: Industrial Commodity Price Weakness Led by Oil
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
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Oil prices reach lowest level since February.
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Steel scrap & framing lumber prices remain notably weak.
Earlier weakness in the Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) has been sustained. The price index is down 3.4% during the last four weeks and 2.1% y/y. The weakness accompanied slight declines in factory sector output in February & March and a 3.6% y/y rise.
Prices in the Crude Oil & Benzene group fell 10.0% during the last four weeks but have risen 16.5% y/y. The cost of West Texas crude oil fell 9.9% in four weeks to $93.18 per barrel, but prices were roughly one-third higher y/y. Prices for the petro-chemical benzene declined 29.0% in four weeks but rose one-quarter y/y. The FIBER price index excluding crude oil fell 2.9% during the last four weeks and was 3.8% lower y/y.
In the Miscellaneous group, prices weakened 5.0% during the last four weeks, led by a one-quarter decline in framing lumber prices. They have fallen 12.7% during the last year. Natural rubber prices weakened 8.3% in four weeks, but were 4.4% higher y/y.
Prices in the Metals group were fairly stable during the last four weeks but down 15.1% y/y. This recent stability reflected an 8.3% rise (13.1% y/y) in zinc prices, which is used in batteries. This was offset by a 5.2% decline in steel scrap prices during the last four weeks, down roughly one-quarter y/y. Aluminum prices improved 1.2% during four weeks (-6.9% y/y). Tin prices fell 6.3% in four weeks, off one-third y/y. Lead prices rose 3.5% in four weeks (-17.1% y/y) but copper scrap prices fell 1.2% in four weeks, down 18.8% y/y.
Textile group prices slipped 0.8% in the last four weeks, but remained 3.4% higher y/y. Cotton prices were little-changed in four weeks but rose by roughly one-quarter y/y. The cost of burlap, used for sacks, bags and gardening, fell 7.0% in the last four weeks but they were up 1.6% y/y.
The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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