Global| Feb 09 2017Wholesale Inventory Growth Remains Firm
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Inventories at the wholesale level jumped another 1.0% (2.8% y/y) during December, the same as in November. The advance report indicated a 1.1% December increase. Inventories of durable goods increased 0.7% (0.8% y/y) after a 1.0% [...]
Inventories at the wholesale level jumped another 1.0% (2.8% y/y) during December, the same as in November. The advance report indicated a 1.1% December increase. Inventories of durable goods increased 0.7% (0.8% y/y) after a 1.0% rise. Motor vehicle inventories strengthened 2.0% (4.4% y/y), but furniture inventories declined 0.6% (2.9% y/y). Computer equipment stockpiles strengthened 1.1% (4.5% y/y), while machinery inventories ticked 0.1% higher (-1.1% y/y). Inventories of nondurable products jumped 1.4% (5.8% y/y) after a 1.0% increase. Petroleum inventories increased 10.1% (35.8% y/y) while chemical stockpiles jumped 3.3% (0.4% y/y). Inventories of paper posted a 0.5% decrease (+2.6% y/y), and apparel inventories declined 0.9% (-7.1% y/y). Farm-product stockpiles decreased 0.9% (+16.5% y/y).
Wholesale sales jumped 2.6% (3.7% y/y) after a 0.5% rise. A 0.6% rise was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Nondurable goods sales improved 2.8% (5.5% y/y) as petroleum sales jumped 15.0% (33.4% y/y). Chemical sales improved 0.6% (5.3% y/y), and apparel sales rebounded 3.5% (-2.5% y/y). Sales of durable goods surged 2.4% (1.8% y/y) while electrical product sales strengthened 3.7% (4.0% y/y). Metals sales increased 2.8% both m/m and y/y. Motor vehicle sales improved 5.5% (3.1% y/y) and computer equipment sales strengthened 3.6% (-3.5% y/y). Sales of machinery declined 1.0% (-2.6% y/y).
The inventory-to-sales ratio of 1.29 remained lower than January's 1.37 peak. The durable goods ratio of 1.62 was down from 1.72 around the middle of last year. The machinery I/S ratio eased y/y to 2.98, while the motor vehicles ratio slipped y/y to 1.74. The computer industry's I/S ratio backpedaled to 0.84 from the 0.87 November high. The electrical equipment industry's I/S ratio fell to 0.96 from its 1.08 peak during March of 2015. In the nondurable goods sector, the I/S ratio of 0.990 was down from 1.06 last February. The chemical sector's ratio of 1.21 was down sharply y/y. In the petroleum sector, the I/S ratio of 0.46 compared to 0.57 early in the year.
The wholesale trade figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economic Survey results are contained in AS1REPNA.
| Wholesale Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | 1.0 | 1.0 | -0.1 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 6.4 |
| Sales | 2.6 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 3.7 | -0.2 | -4.3 | 3.6 |
| I/S Ratio | 1.29 | 1.32 | 1.31 | 1.35 (Dec '15) | 1.34 | 1.32 | 1.21 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
