Global| Sep 29 2009Weekly Gasoline Prices Fall To Lowest Level In One Month
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The pump price for regular gasoline fell last week to the lowest level since late-July. At an average $2.50 per gallon the price dropped a nickel from the prior week and may have broken out of the sideways pattern since early-June. [...]
The pump
price for regular gasoline fell last week to the lowest
level since late-July. At an average $2.50 per gallon the price dropped
a nickel from the prior week and may have broken out of the sideways
pattern since early-June. These prices compare to the December low of
$1.61. Yesterday, prices fell further. The wholesale gasoline price was
down to $1.65 per gallon. Prices had reached a high in early-August of
$2.03. The figures are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy and
can be found in Haver's WEEKLY & DAILY databases.
During August, the consumer price index for gasoline recouped the July decline with a not seasonally adjusted 3.3% increase. Seasonally adjusted gas prices were quite firm and rose 9.1% m/m, up 40.3% YTD.
Crude
oil
prices have led the decline in refined product prices.
Light sweet crude oil prices (WTI) fell to $68.41 per barrel, though
that still was up from the December low of $32.37. Yesterday, the spot
market price for light sweet crude oil fell further to $66.84 per
barrel versus a daily high of $71.55 last week.
The demand for gasoline continued to improve through mid-month. The y/y rise of 1.1% was the first meaningful positive comparison since early-2007. Demand for residual fuel oil slacked off from its earlier strength and fell 5.1% y/y while distillate demand is off 13.2% y/y. Finally, oil remains plentiful as evidenced by a 16.5% y/y rise in inventories of crude oil & petroleum products. Inventories of gasoline recently have surged and are up 19.2% versus last year. The figures on crude oil production and inventories are available in Haver's OILWKLY database.
Natural gas prices increased again last week to an average of $3.48 per mmbtu (-54.9% y/y) but they remained down by three-quarters from the high reached in early-July of last year of $13.19/mmbtu. Yesterday prices were up from last week's level at $3.54/mmbtu.
| Weekly Prices | 09/28/09 | 09/21/09 | Y/Y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Regular Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular) | 2.50 | 2.55 | -31.2% | 3.25 | 2.80 | 2.57 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl.) | 68.41 | 71.36 | -37.9% | 100.16 | 72.25 | 66.12 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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