Global| Jul 07 2009Weekly Chain Store Sales Recover Around The Holiday
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Fourth of July seems to have prompted consumer spending this year. During the latest week, chain store sales ticked up all of 0.1%. That, however, was enough to pull the y/y change up to +0.5% after a y/y gain of 0.6% last week. [...]
The Fourth of July seems to have prompted consumer spending this year. During the latest week, chain store sales ticked up all of 0.1%. That, however, was enough to pull the y/y change up to +0.5% after a y/y gain of 0.6% last week. Maybe the consumer is finding his footing? These are the first positive comparisons since late last year. But the consumer definitely isn't spending with wild abandonee. The latest gains fall well short of the three-to-seven percent growth rates logged during the last several years.
During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the year-to-year growth in chain store sales and the growth in general merchandise sales. The weekly figures are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.The ICSC-Goldman Sachs retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
In tandem with the idea that the consumer isn't yet spending freely, the leading indicator of sales ticked up all of 0.1% during the latest week. That uptick left the indicator down 2.5% y/y and it has been flat-to-lower all this year.
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| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 07/04/09 | 06/27/09 | Y/Y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 493.8 | 493.4 | 0.5% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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