Global| Jan 12 2010Weekly Chain Store Sales LikelySuffered From Price Discounting
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Energy prices are responding to evidence of economic recovery. Last week the pump price for regular gasoline rose to $2.75 per gallon, the highest level since October 2008 and up 71% from the December 2008 low of $1.61. Yesterday, [...]
Energy
prices are responding to evidence of economic recovery. Last week the pump
price for regular gasoline rose to $2.75 per gallon, the
highest level since October 2008 and up 71% from the December 2008 low
of $1.61. Yesterday, strength in gasoline prices eased somewhat. The
spot market price for a gallon of regular gasoline held at $2.12 per
gallon, the same as last week's level. The figures are reported by the
U.S. Department of Energy and can be found in Haver's WEEKLY
& DAILY databases.
Earlier gains in the price for a barrel of light sweet crude (WTI) oil also stabilized. Yesterday, the spot price of $82.52 was roughly unchanged from the prior week. Nevertheless, prices have risen from $71.53 averaged in early-December. Moreover, prices were up sharply from the December 2008 low of $32.37.
Demand for gasoline last week posted a 0.9% decline versus one year ago. That decline compared to a 3.9% increase at the beginning of October. Breaking away from earlier y/y strength, the demand for residual fuel oil fell a sharp 50.4% y/y while distillate demand fell 10.9% y/y, a decline more moderate than the 21.6% y/y shortfall at the beginning of last July. Inventories of crude oil and petroleum products fell in early-January by 6.2% from the July high and were up a diminished 3.1% from one year ago.
Reflecting the cold temperatures throughout the U.S. natural gas prices also strengthened significantly. Last week prices averaged $6.50 per mmbtu (11.1% y/y), up from $3.35 in November and triple the September low. Nevertheless, prices remained down by half from the high reached in early-July of 2008 of $13.19/mmbtu.
The energy price data can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database while the daily figures are in DAILY. The gasoline demand figures are in OILWKLY.
The Case for "Inflation First" Monetary Policy from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here
| Weekly Prices | 01/11/10 | 01/04/10 | 12/28/09 | Y/Y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Regular Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular) | 2.75 | 2.67 | 2.61 | 54.2% | 3.25 | 2.80 | 2.57 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl.) | 82.59 | 79.14 | 75.09 | 85.6% | 100.16 | 72.25 | 66.12 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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