Global| Mar 06 2014U.S. Worker Productivity Growth Is Revised Lower
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Nonfarm business sector productivity improved 1.8% last quarter (1.3% y/y), revised down from last month's estimate of 3.2% growth. That followed a little-revised Q3 increase of 3.5%. The gain fell short of expectations for a 2.5% [...]
Nonfarm business sector productivity improved 1.8% last quarter (1.3% y/y), revised down from last month's estimate of 3.2% growth. That followed a little-revised Q3 increase of 3.5%. The gain fell short of expectations for a 2.5% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. For all of last year productivity rose 0.5%, down from the 1.5% rise in 2012. A downward revision to output growth to 3.4% (2.9% y/y) from 4.9% estimated earlier accounted for the revision to productivity. That accompanied last week's revision to GDP growth. Hours worked increased a little-changed 1.6% (1.7% y/y). Compensation rose 1.7% (0.3% y/y) but when adjusted for inflation it increased 0.8% in Q4 (-0.9% y/y). Unit labor costs fell minimally, compared to the initial estimate of a 1.6% fall. They were down a lessened 0.9% y/y.
In the factory sector, worker productivity increased at a 1.3% rate (1.9% y/y), revised down from 2.0%. For the year productivity rose 1.8%. Output surged at a lessened 5.0% rate (3.0% y/y) while hours worked gained 3.6% (1.1% y/y). Worker compensation increased at a 1.2% rate (0.9% y/y). Adjusted for price inflation, compensation edged 0.4% higher (0.1% y/y). Unit labor costs slipped a lessened 0.1% (-1.0% y/y) in Q4 and for all of last year costs declined 0.9%. All of the productivity & cost figures were revised back to 2009.
The productivity & cost figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and is the AS1REPNA database.
| Productivity & Costs (SAAR,%) | Q4'13 | Q3'13 | Q2'13 | Q4 Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Business Sector | |||||||
| Output per Hour (Productivity) | 1.8 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Compensation per Hour | 1.7 | 1.3 | 3.8 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| Unit Labor Costs | -0.1 | -2.1 | 2.0 | -0.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Manufacturing Sector | |||||||
| Output per Hour | 1.3 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Compensation per Hour | 1.2 | 0.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Unit Labor Costs | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | -1.0 | -0.9 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
