Global| Apr 09 2015U.S. Wholesale Inventory Accumulation Remains Firm
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Inventories at the wholesale level increased 0.3% during February (6.1% y/y) following a 0.4% January rise. Durable goods inventories gained 0.3% (7.6% y/y). Motor vehicle inventories increased 2.4% (12.6% y/y) and electrical [...]
Inventories at the wholesale level increased 0.3% during February (6.1% y/y) following a 0.4% January rise. Durable goods inventories gained 0.3% (7.6% y/y). Motor vehicle inventories increased 2.4% (12.6% y/y) and electrical equipment inventories rose 1.1% (10.2% y/y). Machinery inventories advanced 0.4% (6.3% y/y). These gains were offset by a 1.2% decline (+5.1 y/y) in machinery inventories and a 0.5% drop (+7.7% y/y) in professional & commercial equipment. Nondurable goods inventories increased 0.2% (3.8% y/y). Petroleum inventories gained 2.4% (-17.8% y/y) and apparel inventories rose 1.1% (7.2% y/y). To the downside, chemical inventories retrenched 2.9% (+0.2% y/y) while paper inventories fell 2.3% (+1.2% y/y).
Wholesale sales declined 0.2% (-1.5% y/y) following a 3.6% shortfall. Durable goods sales declined 2.4% (+3.5% y/y), held back by a 5.0% drop (+7.8% y/y) in electrical equipment sales and a 3.4% decline (-0.1% y/y) in machinery sales. Motor vehicle sales declined 1.9% (+6.8% y/y). In the nondurable goods area, sales increased 1.9% (-5.8% y/y). The gain was paced by a 5.5% rise (-36.5% y/y) in petroleum sales. Chemical sales improved 3.4% (-0.9% y/y) but apparel sales were off by 1.1% (+3.8% y/y).
The inventory-to-sales ratio held at 1.29. It jumped in January from 1.24 in December. The ratio was its highest level since 2009. The durable goods I/S ratio jumped to 1.66, up from its 2010 low of 1.48. The nondurable ratio slipped m/m to 0.95 but that was up from 0.87 last year.
The wholesale trade figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
| Wholesale Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 6.6 |
| Sales | -0.2 | -3.6 | -0.9 | -1.5 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 5.9 |
| I/S Ratio | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.24 | 1.20 (Feb.'14) | 1.20 | 1.18 | 1.16 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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