Global| Feb 10 2015U.S. Wholesale Inventory Accumulation Rate Intensified Last Year
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Inventories at the wholesale level during all of last year increased 6.7%, the fastest rate since 2011. During December, however, the gain slipped back to just 0.1% after an unrevised 0.8% jump in November. Durable goods inventories [...]
Inventories at the wholesale level during all of last
year increased 6.7%, the fastest rate since 2011. During December, however, the
gain slipped back to just 0.1% after an unrevised 0.8% jump in November. Durable
goods inventories rose 7.8% last year after a 5.7% 2010 increase. For December
alone, inventories of durables gained 0.2%. Motor vehicle inventories increased
0.2% y/y and furniture inventories rose 1.2% (5.4% y/y). These gains were offset
by a 1.7% decline (+4.8 y/y) in electrical equipment inventories. Nondurable
goods inventories increased 4.9% last year despite a 19.1% drop in petroleum
with lower prices. For December, nondurables inventories slipped 0.1% (+4.9%
y/y), held back by a 6.2% drop in petroleum. Apparel inventories also were off
by 0.6% (+5.5% y/y). A 3.4% increase (1.1% y/y) in chemical inventories offset
these declines.
Wholesale sales increased 5.0% last year after a 4.4% rise in 2013. Durable goods sales increased 5.8% on top of a 4.2% rise. For December alone, wholesale sales overall fell 0.4% (+1.4% y/y) held back by a 13.7% drop (-29.4% y/y) in petroleum sales. Apparel sales also were off by 1.5% (+7.4% y/y). Working the other way, sales of electrical equipment soared 3.4% (13.4 y/y) and chemical sales increased 2.3% (3.9% y/y). Motor vehicle sales improved 0.4% (6.1% y/y).
The inventory-to-sales ratio at the wholesale level rose to 1.19 from 1.17 in 2013. In December the ratio rose to 1.22, its highest since 2009. The durable goods I/S ratio rose to 1.57 in December but was fairly steady during the year. The nondurable ratio gained to 0.89 in December and to 0.85 for the year, despite a decline in petroleum to 0.31 for the whole year from 0.35.
The wholesale trade figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
| Wholesale Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 5.5 |
| Sales | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.0 | 1.4 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 4.8 |
| I/S Ratio | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.20 | 1.16 (Dec.'13) | 1.19 | 1.17 | 1.18 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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