Global| Nov 10 2015U.S. Wholesale Inventory Accumulation Improves
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Inventories at the wholesale level rose 0.5% during September (4.5% y/y) following a 0.3% August increase. The rise was paced by a 1.3% jump (8.4% y/y) in furniture and a 0.5% rise (12.8% y/y) in automotive inventories.. Computer & [...]
Inventories at the wholesale level rose 0.5% during September (4.5% y/y)
following a 0.3% August increase. The rise was paced by a 1.3% jump (8.4% y/y) in
furniture and a 0.5% rise (12.8% y/y) in automotive inventories.. Computer &
peripherals fell 1.7% (+1.8% y/y) and electrical goods inventories eased 0.3% (+5.4%
y/y. Nondurable goods inventories increased 1.9% (7.5% y/y). The gain reflected
a 2.3% rise (14.4% y/y) in apparel but petroleum inventories eased 0.6% (-18.2%
y/y). Chemical inventories declined 1.6% (+4.0% y/y).
Sales in the wholesale sector improved 0.5% (-3.6% y/y) after two months of decline. Motor vehicle sales jumped 2.3% (5.9% y/y) though furniture purchases were off 2.7% (+4.6% y/y). Machinery equipment sales improved 0.2% (-3.6% y/y). Nondurable goods sales increased 0.3% (-6.1% y/y) as apparel sales gained 1.9% (6.3% y/y). Chemical sales improved 0.5% (-2.9% y/y) but petroleum sales declined 4.6% (-39.1% y/y).
The inventory to sales ratio held steady at 1.31, up sharply from 1.14 averaged in 2010 and 2011. The motor vehicle ratio eased to 1.73, but remained near the expansion high. The ratio for furniture & home furnishings jumped to 1.68 but has moved erratically sideways during the expansion. The nondurable goods ratio surged to 1.00, the highest level since 2001 due to strength across several industries.
The wholesale trade figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
| Wholesale Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | 0.5 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 6.6 |
| Sales | 0.5 | -0.9 | -0.3 | -3.6 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 6.2 |
| I/S Ratio | 1.31 | 1.31 | 1.30 | 1.20 (Sep. '14) | 1.20 | 1.18 | 1.16 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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