Global| Mar 10 2015U.S. Wholesale Inventory Accumulation Eases
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Inventories at the wholesale level in January gained 0.3% (6.2% y/y) following little change in December, revised from 0.1%. Durable goods inventories rose 0.6% (7.7% y/y). Electrical equipment inventories were quite strong and [...]
Inventories at the wholesale level in January gained 0.3% (6.2% y/y)
following little change in December, revised from 0.1%. Durable goods
inventories rose 0.6% (7.7% y/y). Electrical equipment inventories were quite
strong and increased 2.4% (10.2% y/y) while motor vehicle inventories jumped
1.6% (8.7% y/y). Furniture inventories also posted a firm 1.2% rise (7.0% y/y).
These gains were offset y a 0.1% slip (+3.7% y/y) in nondurable goods
inventories, restrained by a 1.1% drop (-20.8% y/y) in the value of petroleum
inventories. Apparel inventories surged 1.1% (5.8% y/y) but chemical inventories
declined 1.0% (+1.1% y/y).
Wholesale sector sales fell 3.1% (-1.0% y/y) following three months of decline. A 0.4% decline was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Durable goods sales were off 1.4% (+5.8% y/y), led lower by a 4.4% decline (+8.4% y/y) in electrical equipment. Furniture sales fell 2.6% (+9.2% y/y) but motor vehicles sales rose 2.5% (10.2% y/y). Nondurable goods sales declined 4.6% (-6.7% y/y), led lower by a 13.5% shortfall (-37.1% y/y) in petroleum shipments as prices fell. Chemical shipments were off 3.4% (-2.5% y/y) and apparel sales slipped 0.6% (+9.0% y/y).
The inventory-to-sales ratio surged to 1.27, its highest level since July 2009. The durable goods I/S ratio rose moderately to 1.61, also the highest since 2009, but the nondurable ratio surged to 0.94, also near the 2009 high. The petroleum ratio's rise was sharp but so too was the rise in chemicals & apparel.
The wholesale trade figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
| Wholesale Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | 0.3 | -0.0 | 0.8 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 5.5 |
| Sales | -3.1 | -0.9 | -0.4 | -1.0 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 4.8 |
| I/S Ratio | 1.27 | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.18 (Jan.'14) | 1.19 | 1.17 | 1.18 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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