Global| Mar 09 2016U.S. Wholesale Inventories Rise While Sales Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Inventories at the wholesale level increased 0.3% (2.0% y/y) following little change in December, revised from -0.1%. The increase reflected a 1.1% rise in the nondurable goods sector despite a 1.6% shortfall (-11.2% y/y) in petroleum [...]
Inventories at the wholesale level increased 0.3% (2.0% y/y) following little change in December, revised from -0.1%. The increase reflected a 1.1% rise in the nondurable goods sector despite a 1.6% shortfall (-11.2% y/y) in petroleum inventories. Paper & products inventories increased 4.2% (2.6% y/y) while apparel inventories ticked 0.1% higher (13.5% y/y). A 0.3% drop (-0.4% y/y) in durable goods inventories was the sixth down month in the last seven. Electrical equipment inventories fell 3.6% (-0.9% y/y), but motor vehicle & parts inventories increased 1.5% (12.0% y/y). Furniture inventories rose 0.9% (6.0% y/y) as machinery & hardware inventories gained 0.2% (-0.8% y/y).
Wholesale sector sales declined 1.3% (-6.4% y/y), also down for the sixth month in the last seven. Durable goods sales fell 1.9% (-6.7% y/y) as furniture & home furnishings sales dropped 5.3% (-0.3% y/y). Computer equipment sales declined 6.4% (-14.0% y/y) and machinery sales eased 0.2% (-5.1% y/y). The 0.8% decline (-6.0% y/y) in nondurable goods shipments reflected a 6.9% drop (-25.8% y/y) in petroleum sales. Chemical sales fell 2.0% (-7.8% y/y), but apparel sales increased 1.1% (-1.8% y/y). Paper products sales increased 1.1% (1.5% y/y).
The wholesale trade inventory-to-sales ratio rose to 1.35, up from 1.14 during all of 2010 and 2011. The nondurable I/S ratio surged to 1.04 as the petroleum ratio jumped to 0.52. The ratio in the apparel sector of 2.10 was increased from 1.88 one year ago and the chemicals ratio of 1.27 also was elevated. The I/S ratio in the durable goods sector of 1.67 reflected a higher 2.85 in machinery and an increased 2.20 ratio in metals. The ratio of 1.00 in electrical goods also was just recently higher.
The wholesale trade figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
| Wholesale Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | 0.3 | -0.0 | -0.4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 6.7 | 4.1 |
| Sales | -1.3 | -0.6 | -1.3 | -6.4 | -3.6 | 4.3 | 3.0 |
| I/S Ratio | 1.35 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 1.28 (Jan. '15) | 1.30 | 1.20 | 1.18 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
