Global| May 09 2019U.S. Wholesale Inventories Ease While Sales Strengthen
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Wholesale inventories slipped 0.1% (+6.7% y/y) during March following a 0.4% gain in February. The Informa Global Markets Survey expected no change. Durable goods inventories increased 0.3% (10.0% y/y) after a 0.2% gain. Machinery [...]
Wholesale inventories slipped 0.1% (+6.7% y/y) during March following a 0.4% gain in February. The Informa Global Markets Survey expected no change.
Durable goods inventories increased 0.3% (10.0% y/y) after a 0.2% gain. Machinery inventories, the largest sector, grew 1.2% (13.5% y/y), but motor vehicle inventories fell 0.9% (+8.3% y/y). Electrical equipment inventories rose 0.2% (9.0% y/y). Inventories of nondurable goods declined 0.6% (+1.7% y/y) after rising 0.7% in February. Drug inventories, which make up one-quarter of nondurable inventories, declined 3.2% (+2.2% y/y) and reversed February's rise. Groceries, the second largest category, gained 0.3% (1.8% y/y). Apparel inventories increased 1.7% (13.4% y/y) and petroleum inventories gained 0.1% (-7.4% y/y).
Wholesale sales jumped 2.3% during March (3.9% y/y) after a 0.3% increase. A 0.7% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Nondurable product sales strengthened 3.1% (4.3% y/y) following two months of 0.9% increase. Petroleum product sales surged 9.4% (12.0% y/y) with higher prices. Drug purchases grew 0.5% (5.7% y/y) and apparel sales rose 0.4% (-3.2% y/y). Chemical sales weakened 3.0% (-0.9% y/y). Durable goods sales rose 1.4% (3.4% y/y) after a 0.3% decline. Electrical equipment sales, the largest sector, surged 3.2% (-2.3% y/y) following declines in five of the prior six months. Professional and commercial equipment, which includes computers, rose 1.4% (6.7% y/y). Vehicle sales improved 0.2% (3.4% y/y).
The inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio fell to 1.32, the lowest level in four months. The I/S ratio for nondurable goods declined to 0.96 as the petroleum industry's I/S ratio fell to 0.33. The apparel industry I/S ratio reached 2.24, a new high for the expansion. The chemical industry ratio rose to 1.18, matching the highest level in nearly two years. The I/S ratio for durable goods was unchanged at 1.70, nearly the highest level since early-2016. The machinery ratio rose to 2.73 but motor vehicles eased to 1.70. The computer equipment I/S ratio declined to 1.90.
The wholesale trade figures and oil prices are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure for inventories is contained in the MMSAMER database. Expectations for sales are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Wholesale Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | -0.1 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.9 |
| Sales | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 6.7 | -1.3 |
| I/S Ratio | 1.32 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.29 (Mar '18) | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.35 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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