Global| Dec 09 2015U.S. Wholesale Inventories Ease
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Inventories at the wholesale level dipped 0.1% during October following a 0.2% September rise, revised from 0.5%. The decline reflected a 1.1% drop (-9.5% y/y) in metals & minerals (excl. petroleum) and a 0.5% decline (+12.9% y/y) in [...]
Inventories at the wholesale level dipped 0.1% during October following a
0.2% September rise, revised from 0.5%. The decline reflected a 1.1% drop (-9.5%
y/y) in metals & minerals (excl. petroleum) and a 0.5% decline (+12.9% y/y) in automotive
inventories. Computer & peripherals inventories also fell 0.7% (+0.1% y/y). Electrical
goods inventories increased 0.6% (5.1% y/y) as did furniture inventories (9.9% y/y). Nondurable
goods inventories ticked 0.1% lower (+5.6% y/y). The decline reflected a 0.7% drop (-16.6% y/y)
in petroleum inventories. Chemical inventories were off 0.1% (+5.2% y/y) but apparel inventories
gained 0.4% (14.1% y/y).
Sales in the wholesale sector were little-changed (-5.8% y/y) following a 0.5% rise. Furniture purchases rose 3.4% (3.9% y/y) and recovered a September decline, but a 2.6% drop (-1.2%y/y) in motor vehicle sales offset this gain. Machinery equipment sales fell 0.7% (-6.5% y/y) while electrical goods inventories rose 0.1% (2.7% y/y). Nondurable goods sales declined 0.7% (-6.9% y/y) as chemical sales fell 1.3% (-8.4% y/y). Petroleum sales gained 2.9% (-33.3% y/y). Apparel sales increased 2.6% (5.8% y/y) but grocery product sales fell 1.2% (-3.3% y/y).
The inventory-to-sales ratio held steady at 1.31, up sharply from 1.14 averaged in 2010 and 2011. The motor vehicle ratio increased to 1.77, the expansion's high. The ratio for furniture & home furnishings offset this rise with a decline to 1.63, and has moved erratically sideways during the economic expansion. The nondurable goods ratio was stable m/m at 0.98, the highest level since 2001.
The wholesale trade figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
| Wholesale Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 3.6 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 6.6 |
| Sales | -0.0 | 0.5 | -0.9 | -5.8 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 6.2 |
| I/S Ratio | 1.31 | 1.31 | 1.31 | 1.22 (Oct. '14) | 1.20 | 1.18 | 1.16 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
