Global| Jul 10 2013U.S. Wholesale Inventories Decline As Sales Rebound
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Inventories at the wholesale level fell 0.5% (+3.3% y/y) during May following a 0.1% slip in April. A 6.0% decline (-6.3% y/y) in farm product inventories led the decline. Inventories of metals fell 1.7% (-3.1% y/y) following sharp [...]
Inventories at the wholesale level fell 0.5% (+3.3% y/y) during May following a 0.1% slip in April. A 6.0% decline (-6.3% y/y) in farm product inventories led the decline. Inventories of metals fell 1.7% (-3.1% y/y) following sharp declines during the prior two months. Machinery, equipment & supplies inventories were off 0.7% but up 9.1% y/y). Offsetting these declines was a 3.0% increase (5.5% y/y) in inventories at drug stores and a 1.9% gain (3.6% y/y) in chemical inventories. Petroleum inventories rose 0.7% (-5.2% y/y) while inventories of electrical goods increased 0.6% (5.5% y/y). Motor vehicle and parts inventories were unchanged (-0.3% y/y).
Wholesale sector sales increased 1.6% (4.1% y/y) led higher by a 5.3% (-0.5% y/y) surge in apparel sales. Grocery & related products sales gained 3.8% (8.6% y/y) with higher prices. Also quite firm was the 3.5% gain (10.9% y/y) in purchases of farm products. Motor vehicle sales grew 3.0% (7.0% y/y) while higher prices led petroleum sales up 1.1% (-4.3% y/y). To the downside, metals purchases dropped 4.5% (-6.8% y/y) and sales of lumber fell 0.6% (+15.0% y/y). Electronic goods inventories were off 0.3% (+3.6% y/y).
The wholesale sector's inventory-to-sales ratio fell to 1.18, the lowest level since April of last year. The durable goods ratio fell to 1.57 but the I/S ratio in the nondurables sector plunged to 0.84, a low for the economic recovery.
The wholesale trade figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in AS1REPNA.
| Wholesale Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | May | Apr | Mar | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | -0.5 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 9.2 | 10.5 |
| Sales | 1.6 | 0.7 | -1.4 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 12.8 | 12.1 |
| I/S Ratio | 1.18 | 1.21 | 1.22 | 1.19(May 2012) | 1.19 | 1.17 | 1.17 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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