Global| Jan 10 2018U.S. Wholesale Inventories and Sales Rise
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Wholesale inventories increased 0.8% (3.9% y/y) during November following a 0.4% October decline, revised from -0.5%. In the advance report issued on December 28, wholesale inventories were reported up 0.7% m/m in November. [...]
Wholesale inventories increased 0.8% (3.9% y/y) during November following a 0.4% October decline, revised from -0.5%. In the advance report issued on December 28, wholesale inventories were reported up 0.7% m/m in November.
Inventories of nondurable goods jumped 1.3% (2.1% y/y). The value of farm product raw materials inventories rebounded 4.3% (4.0% y/y) but apparel inventories eased 0.1% (-4.1% y/y). Inventories of petroleum strengthened 4.9% (9.6% y/y) with higher prices but chemical inventories fell minimally (+3.9% y/y). Durable goods inventories increased 0.5% (5.1% y/y) as electrical equipment inventories rose 1.5% (9.6% y/y) and machinery inventories strengthened 1.0% (3.3% y/y). Motor vehicle inventories gained 0.7% (3.0% y/y). Offsetting these gains, furniture & home furnishing inventories eased 0.2% (+2.2% y/y) and computer equipment inventories fell 0.1% (+4.0% y/y).
Sales at the wholesale level strengthened 1.5% (9.7% y/y) in November after a 0.8% increase. A 0.6% m/m rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Nondurable goods purchases increased 1.4% (7.6% y/y) as petroleum sales gained 6.4% (30.0% y/y). Chemical product sales rose 0.5% (8.6% y/y) but farm product sales eased 0.8% (-4.0% y/y). Apparel sales declined 0.5% (+1.8% y/y). Durable goods sales increased 1.6% (12.0% y/y) reflecting a 3.2% rise (14.9% y/y) in machinery sales and a 1.3% rise (15.6% y/y) in motor vehicle purchases. Electrical equipment sales rose 1.4% (11.2% y/y) but furniture sales ticked just 0.1% higher (-2.5% y/y).
The inventory-to-sales ratio at the wholesale level eased to 1.24 in November, its lowest reading in three years and down from a February 2016 high of 1.36.
The I/S ratio for durable goods continued its decline, falling to 1.57; well below its recent peak of 1.74 in January 2016. The metals ratio rose to 2.11, but the motor vehicle ratio eased to 1.65. The electrical equipment ratio was stable at 1.00, and the computer equipment ratio fell to 0.84. The I/S ratio for nondurables goods held steady in November at 0.93. The apparel industry ratio was stable at 1.99 and the grocery ratio held at 0.67. The petroleum industry ratio eased to 0.38.
The wholesale trade figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economic Survey results are contained in AS1REPNA.
| Wholesale Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | 0.8 | -0.4 | 0.1 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 5.8 |
| Sales | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 9.7 | -0.4 | -4.9 | 3.6 |
| I/S Ratio | 1.24 | 1.25 | 1.26 | 1.31 (Nov '16) | 1.33 | 1.32 | 1.21 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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