Global| Apr 08 2016U.S. Wholesale Inventories and Sales Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Inventories at the wholesale level declined 0.5% during February (+0.5% y/y) following a 0.2% January drop, revised from +0.3%. The shortfall reflected a 1.1% decline (+3.7% y/y) in the nondurable goods sector, despite a 1.5% rise [...]
Inventories at the wholesale level declined 0.5% during February (+0.5% y/y) following a 0.2% January drop, revised from +0.3%. The shortfall reflected a 1.1% decline (+3.7% y/y) in the nondurable goods sector, despite a 1.5% rise (-9.6% y/y) in petroleum inventories. Farm-product inventories fell 4.2% (-7.3% y/y) while apparel inventories were off 1.3% (+9.6% y/y). To the upside, grocery & related product inventories rose 0.9% (4.4% y/y). In the durable goods area, inventories eased 0.1% (-1.3% y/y) as motor vehicle inventories fell 1.0% (+5.5% y/y). Furniture & home furnishing inventories remained unchanged (+6.6% y/y) while electrical product inventories rose 2.0% (-0.6% y/y).
Wholesale sector sales eased 0.2% (+0.7% y/y), down for the fourth straight month. Nondurable goods sales declined 1.6% (-2.4% y/y) as petroleum & petroleum product sales dropped 10.1% (-32.8% y/y) with lower prices. Paper product sales declined 1.4% (+9.8% y/y), but apparel sales gained 1.7% (11.2% y/y). Durable goods sales recovered 1.2% (4.2% y/y) as furniture & home furnishings sales rebounded 2.3% (8.9% y/y). Electrical equipment sales recovered 3.1% (6.4% y/y), but machinery sales declined 1.4% (+4.8% y/y).
The wholesale trade inventory-to-sales ratio eased to 1.36, but remained near the highest level of the economic expansions. The nondurable I/S ratio held at a record 1.05 as the petroleum ratio remained in record territory at 0.57. The ratio in the apparel sector of 2.14 was increased slightly y/y, and the chemicals ratio at 1.29 remained elevated. The I/S ratio in the durable goods sector eased to 1.69, down slightly from last year's high. The 3.05 machinery ratio was steady as was the ratio of 1.04 in electrical goods.
The wholesale trade figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
| Wholesale Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | -0.5 | -0.2 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 6.4 | 3.8 |
| Sales | -0.2 | -1.9 | -0.3 | 0.7 | -4.3 | 3.6 | 3.0 |
| I/S Ratio | 1.36 | 1.37 | 1.34 | 1.31 (Feb. '15) | 1.30 | 1.20 | 1.18 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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