Global| Oct 13 2011U.S. Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Slip
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for jobless insurance slipped to 404,000 last week versus 405,000 a week earlier (revised from 401,000). The latest figure roughly equaled Consensus expectations for 405,000 claims, according to the Action Economics [...]
Initial claims for jobless insurance slipped to 404,000 last week versus 405,000 a week earlier (revised from 401,000). The latest figure roughly equaled Consensus expectations for 405,000 claims, according to the Action Economics survey. The 4-week moving average of claims fell to 408,000, its lowest since mid-August. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell to 3.670M in the October 1st week. The insured unemployment rate slipped to 2.9% from an upwardly revised 3.0%. By state, the rate varied with Virginia (1.3%), New Hampshire (1.6%), Texas (1.8%), Indiana (1.8%), Colorado (2.1%) and Tennessee (2.0%) at the low end of the range. The rates in Illinois (2.9%), Connecticut (3.1%), Nevada (3.2%), New Jersey (3.4%), California (3.4%) and Pennsylvania (3.6%) were at the high end.
The grand total of those receiving unemployment insurance, including extended programs run by the states and the federal government, was 6.822M as of September 24, down by one-quarter y/y. Regular extended benefits, with eligibility dependent on conditions in individual states, recovered the prior week's decline with a rise to 537,165 (-40.8% y/y) and those on the special "EUC 2008" programs slipped to 3.016M (-22.4% y/y).
Data on weekly unemployment insurance programs are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, including the seasonal factor series, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states, including the unemployment rates that determine individual state eligibility for the extended benefits programs and specific "tiers" of the emergency program, are in REGIONW, a database of weekly data for states and various regional divisions. Action Economics estimates are in AS1REPNA.
Recent Layoffs in a Fragile Labor Market from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
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Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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