Global| Mar 20 2008U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Highest Since 2005
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance last week surged 22,000 to 378,000. The latest was the highest level since September 2005 and claims during the prior week were revised up slightly. Consensus expectations had been for initial [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance last week surged 22,000 to 378,000. The latest was the highest level since September 2005 and claims during the prior week were revised up slightly. Consensus expectations had been for initial claims last week to rise just slightly to 359,000. So far in March claims have averaged 367,000, up 2.2% from the February average.
The latest weekly claims figure will be used by the Labor Department to survey March nonfarm payrolls. Claims rose 24,000 (6.8%) from the February survey period. 
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
The four week moving average of initial claims rose to 365,250 (12.7% y/y), also the highest since 2005.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose a strong 32,000 (1.1%) during the latest week. That followed a 4,000 rise, which was revised down just slightly, during the prior period. Insured unemployment stood at its highest level since August 2004. The figure provides some indication of workers' ability to find employment.
The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment rose to 2.2%, its highest level since October 2005.
No Volatility, No Forecasting Power for the Term Spread from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 03/15/08 | 03/08/08 | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 378 | 356 | 18.9% | 322 | 313 | 331 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,835 | 9.8% | 2,551 | 2,459 | 2,662 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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