Global| Mar 27 2008U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Dipped
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance claims fell back last week by 9,000 to 366,000 after an upwardly revised 28,000 increase during the prior week. The latest was near the highest level since September 2005. Consensus expectations had been [...]
Initial unemployment insurance claims fell back last week by 9,000 to 366,000 after an upwardly revised 28,000 increase during the prior week. The latest was near the highest level since September 2005. Consensus expectations had been for 370,000 initial claims last week. So far in March claims have averaged 363,000, up 1.1% from the February average. (Prior years' figures were revised.)
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell slightly to 360,250 (13.6% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell slightly by 5,000 after the upwardly revised 57,000 increase during the prior week. Insured unemployment is at its highest level since mid 2005. The figure provides some indication of workers' ability to find employment.
The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment held at 2.1%.
No Volatility, No Forecasting Power for the Term Spread from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 03/21/08 | 03/14/08 | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 366 | 375 | 18.1% | 322 | 313 | 331 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,845 | 13.8% | 2,551 | 2,459 | 2,662 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
