Global| Oct 14 2010U.S. Weekly Initial Claims For Jobless Insurance Increase But Trend Sideways
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The labor market is showing halting improvement. Last week, initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 13,000 to 462,000 after a 7,000 decline (revised from -11,000) during the prior week. Since February, the level of claims has [...]
The labor market is showing halting improvement. Last week, initial
claims for unemployment insurance rose 13,000 to 462,000 after a 7,000
decline (revised from -11,000) during the prior week. Since February, the
level of claims has moved erratically sideways. The 4-week moving average
rose slightly to 459,000 and the latest figure also was above Consensus
forecasts for a decline to 443,000. During the last ten years there has
been a 78% correlation between the level of initial unemployment insurance
claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
Continuing claims for state-administered programs fell sharply last week to the lowest level since late-2008. The associated unemployment rate slipped to 3.5% but, as with initial claims, continued its sideways movement. These claimants are, however, only about half of the total number of people currently receiving unemployment insurance. Regular extended benefits, with eligibility dependent on conditions in individual states, fell sharply to 0.907M on September 25, the latest available figure. In July, the Congress renewed the special Emergency Unemployment Compensation program referred to as EUC 2008. By September 25, also the latest available for this program, it had a sharply reduced 3.888 million beneficiaries. It will now accept claims through November 30 and will be continuing to pay out benefits until April 30, 2011.
Haver Analytics calculates a grand total of all claimants for unemployment insurance. This series includes extended and emergency programs as well as selective programs for railway employees, recently discharged veterans and federal employees. All together, on September 25th, the total number of recipients was 8.652 million, off 4.9% y/y and down from the early-January high of 11.989 million. These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance programs are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states, including the unemployment rates that determine individual state eligibility for the extended benefits programs and specific "tiers" of the emergency program, are in REGIONW, a database of weekly data for states and various regional divisions.
Are Wages Rigid Over The Business Cycle? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond is available here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 10/09/10 | 10/02/10 | 09/25/10 | Y/Y | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 462 | 449 | 456 | -11.3% | 572 | 419 | 321 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 4,399 | 4,511 | -26.1 | 5,809 | 3,340 | 2,549 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate(%) | -- | 3.5 | 3.6 | 4.6 (09/09) |
4.4 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
| Total Continuing Claims* (NSA) | -- | -- | 8.652M | -4.9% | 9.085M | 3.884M | 2.584M |
* Calculated by Haver Analytics, as the sum of regular state programs, extended benefits, federal employees, veterans, railroad retirement board and "EUC" 2008.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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