Global| Feb 21 2008U.S. Weekly Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Down, Revisions Up
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 9,000 to 349,000 last week, but the prior week's level was revised up sharply. For February, claims so far are up 28,000, or 8.6%, from the January average. The latest weekly level [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 9,000 to 349,000 last week, but the prior week's level was revised up sharply. For February, claims so far are up 28,000, or 8.6%, from the January average. The latest weekly level remained near the highest since October of 2005.
The four-week moving average of initial claims, a measure which smoothes out most of the series' w/w volatility, rose again to 360,500 (+9.2% y/y), the highest level since Summer of 2005.
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 48,000 and reversed a 48,000 decline during the prior week. That decline was much deeper than reported initially. Insured unemployment stood at its highest level since Summer 2005. The figure provides some indication of workers' ability to find employment.
The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.1% for the third consecutive week.
Minutes to the January meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee can be found here.
Recent Trends in Economic Volatility: Conference Summary from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 02/16/08 | 02/09/08 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 349 | 358 | 4.8% | 313 | 331 | 343 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,784 | 11.5% | 2,459 | 2,662 | 2,924 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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