Global| May 01 2013U.S. Vehicle Sales Move Lower
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
After several months at the highs for the economic recovery, U.S. vehicle sales have begun to decline. Unit sales of light motor vehicles during April fell 2.3% m/m (+5.7% y/y) to 14.92M (SAAR) according to the Autodata Corporation. [...]
After several months at the highs for the economic recovery, U.S. vehicle sales have begun to decline. Unit sales of light motor vehicles during April fell 2.3% m/m (+5.7% y/y) to 14.92M (SAAR) according to the Autodata Corporation. These sales compare to the recovery peak of 15.54M in November. Sales disappointed expectations for 15.3M according to Bloomberg.
Light truck sales slipped 0.4% (+11.8% y/y) in April to 7.74M. Domestic light truck purchases were virtually unchanged m/m (13.4% y/y) at 6.75M while sales of imported light trucks fell 3.7% to 0.99M, up 2.1% y/y. Auto sales fell 4.2% m/m (-0.2% y/y) to 7.18M last month. Domestic car sales fell 4.3% to 5.11M (+6.3% y/y) while sales of imports fell 3.8% (-13.3% y/y) to 2.07M.
Imports' share of the U.S. light vehicle market slipped to 20.5% in April, the lowest level since August. (Imported vehicles are those produced outside the United States.) That share was down from its peak of 29.9% in Q1'09. The lower foreign exchange value of the dollar played a role as it made imports relatively more expensive. Imports' share of the U.S. car market was roughly stable at 28.8% and remained down from its 37.8% monthly peak in 2010. Imports' share of the light truck market declined to 12.8% last month, down from its 23.9% peak in early '09. The U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's USECON database.
Estimating the trend rate of economic growth using the CFNAI from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is available here.
| Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR, Mil. Units) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Y/Y % | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 14.92 | 15.27 | 15.38 | 5.7 | 14.48 | 12.78 | 11.59 |
| Autos | 7.18 | 7.49 | 7.80 | -0.2 | 7.43 | 6.23 | 5.77 |
| Domestic | 5.11 | 5.34 | 5.51 | 6.3 | 5.10 | 4.21 | 3.76 |
| Imported | 2.07 | 2.15 | 2.29 | -13.3 | 2.33 | 2.02 | 2.01 |
| Light Trucks | 7.74 | 7.78 | 7.58 | 14.8 | 7.05 | 6.55 | 5.82 |
| Domestic | 6.75 | 6.74 | 6.56 | 13.4 | 6.08 | 5.55 | 4.86 |
| Imported | 0.99 | 1.03 | 1.02 | 2.1 | 0.97 | 1.00 | 0.96 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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