Global| Aug 07 2008U.S. Unemployment Insurance Claims Rose Further
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose again last week. The 7,000 increase to 455,000 followed the unrevised 45,000 surge during the week earlier. The latest level was the highest since March of 2002 and it surpassed Consensus [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose again last week. The 7,000 increase to 455,000 followed the unrevised 45,000 surge during the week earlier. The latest level was the highest since March of 2002 and it surpassed Consensus expectations for a decline to 420,000 claims.
The Labor Department indicated that a program to locate people eligible for jobless benefits played a role in last week's increase in claims.
As a result of the latest jump in initial claims, the four-week moving average increased to 419,500 (34.5% y/y), the highest level since mid-2003. During July claims averaged 393,000.
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment. Over the longer period of time, the level of claims for jobless insurance has not trended higher with the size of the labor force due to a higher proportion of self-employed workers who are not eligible for benefits.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance during the latest week rose 31,000 after a little revised 183,000 jump during the prior week. The four-week moving average of continuing claims surged to 3,201 which was its highest level since late-2003.
Continuing claims provide some indication of workers' ability to find employment and they lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment was stable at 2.5%, the highest level since early 2004.
How Much Have U.S. House Prices Fallen from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.
Unanchored Expectations? Interpreting the Evidence from Inflation Surveys from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 08/02/08 | 07/26/08 | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 455 | 448 | 43.1% | 322 | 313 | 331 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,311 | 29.7% | 2,552 | 2,459 | 2,662 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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