Global| Apr 10 2008U.S. Trade Deficit Surprisingly Deeper in February
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. foreign trade deficit widened surprisingly to $62.3B from 59.0B in January which was only slightly revised. Consensus expectations had been for a shallower deficit of $57.5B during February. Much of the surprise in the [...]
Lower oil prices caused the value of energy related imports to decline by 12.5% and petroleum imports to fall by 5.1%. Crude oil prices rose just 0.8% to an average $84.76 per barrel but that was a record high. The quantity of oil imports, however, responded to the higher prices and fell 11.1% m/m (+13.3% y/y).
U.S. exports during February continued strong and rose 2.0% after a 1.7% rise in January. Exports of goods overall rose 2.5% (21.2% y/y) due to strong exports of foods, feeds & beverages which rose 7.8% (47.4% y/y). Exports of industrial supplies & materials also jumped by 6.3% (33.9% y/y) but exports of capital goods fell by 1.7% (+12.2% y/y) for the third decline in the last four months. Exports of civilian aircraft fell 3.0% (+25.1% y/y) after a sharp January decline. Exports of computers rose 6.1% (0.55 y/y) after a strong 5.3% gain January. Exports of nonauto consumer goods fell 1.0% (+15.3% y/y) after two months of strong gain.
The U.S. trade deficit in goods with China eased slightly m/m to $18.40B and remained well below last year's monthly record of $25.9B. The slower U.S. economy slowed growth in imports from China to 4.5% during the last twelve months after growth between 10% and 30% during the last several years. Exports to China in February grew 24.7% y/y after growth 20% and 30% during the prior for years.
| Foreign Trade | February | January | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Trade Deficit | $62.3B | $59.0B | $58.2B (2/07) |
$708.5 | $758.5 | $714.4B |
| Exports - Goods & Services | 2.0% | 1.7% | 20.8% | 12.6% | 12.7% | 10.9% |
| Imports - Goods & Services | 3.1% | 1.8% | 16.4% | 6.0% | 10.4% | 12.9% |
| Petroleum | -5.1% | 11.3% | 78.8% | 9.5% | 20.1% | 39.6% |
| Nonpetroleum Goods | 5.4% | -0.6% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 9.1% | 10.3% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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