Global| Sep 10 2004U.S. Trade Deficit Still Near The Record in July
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. foreign trade deficit fell in July but remained at the second highest level on record at $50.1B. Consensus expectations had been for a deficit of $51.5B. Exports rebounded 3.0% following the 3.9% slump in June that was [...]
The U.S. foreign trade deficit fell in July but remained at the second highest level on record at $50.1B. Consensus expectations had been for a deficit of $51.5B.
Exports rebounded 3.0% following the 3.9% slump in June that was revised somewhat shallower. Capital goods exports recovered 5.8% (13.7% y/y) of an 8.2% June drop. Nonauto consumer goods exports fell by 2.1% (+9.5% y/y) for the fourth consecutive monthly decline.
Total imports fell 1.4% as petroleum imports dropped 9.4% (+24.5% y/y). Less the rise in prices, petroleum imports are down 2.2% y/y. Imports of non-petroleum goods fell 0.4% (15.5% y/y).
By country, the US trade deficit with China deepened to another record at $14.9.0B ($124.1B in 2003) as imports rose 3.7% (30.7% y/y). The US trade deficit with Japan also deepened to $6.4B ($66.0B in 2003).
"Rule of Law and Economic Growth" from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.
| Foreign Trade | July | June | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Deficit | $50.1B | $55.0B | $40.8B(7/03) | $496.5B | $421.7B | $362.7B |
| Exports - Goods & Services | 3.0% | -3.9% | 12.0% | 4.6% | -3.1% | -6.0% |
| Imports - Goods & Services | -1.4% | 2.9% | 15.5% | 8.5% | 2.1% | -5.5% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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