Global| Dec 09 2011U.S. Trade Deficit Shrinks Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. foreign trade shortfall lessened for the fourth consecutive month during October.
Overall exports slipped 0.8% led by a 1.2% (+13.5% y/y) decline in goods exports. Exports of nonauto consumer goods fell 3.6% (+5.4% y/y) while capital goods imports rose 1.1% (10.0% y/y). Exports of automotive vehicles slipped 0.5% (+15.2% y/y). Services exports ticked 0.1% higher (9.5% y/y). Travel exports fell 1.0% (+11.9% y/y) as fewer individuals visited the U.S. and passenger fares fell 1.7% (+18.4% y/y).
Total imports declined 1.0% in October as goods imports fell 1.2% (+12.9% y/y). Imports of industrial supplies fell 5.5% (+24.4% y/y) but imports of nonauto consumer goods imports jumped 1.7% (2.1% y/y) following five straight months of decline. Imports of capital goods jumped by 2.7% (11.2% y/y) while auto imports fell 2.8% (+11.1% y/y). Imports of services ticked 0.2% higher and by 5.9% y/y. Travel imports slipped 0.3% (+5.5% y/y) as fewer U.S. citizens traveled abroad while passenger fares fell 2.7% (+8.1% y/y).
The value of October's petroleum imports declined 5.0% but rose 31.9% y/y with higher prices. In constant dollars, petroleum imports fell 2.8% and by 0.4% y/y. The cost of crude oil per barrel fell to $98.84, down for the fifth month in a row. In October 2010, the average price was $74.21. During October, the quantity of energy-related petroleum imports fell 1.0% y/y.
By country, the October goods trade deficit with Mainland China was stable m/m at $28.1B. However, that remained near the record and increased from $25.7B twelve months earlier. Imports from China increased 7.8% y/y to $37.8B while U.S. exports rose 3.7% y/y to $9.7B. With Japan, the deficit deepened to $6.2B as exports rose 10.5% y/y and imports rose 9.4% y/y. The deficit with the European Union deepened to $8.0B with a 7.2% y/y rise in exports to Europe and a 9.3% rise in imports.
The international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics consensus survey, which is carried in the AS1REPNA
| Foreign Trade | Oct | Sep | Aug | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Trade Deficit | $43.5B | $44.2B | $45.3B | $39.5B (10/10) |
$500.0B | $381.3B | $698.3B |
| Exports-Goods & Services | $179.2B | $180.6B | $178.0B | $159.5B | $1,838B | $1,575.0B | $1,842.7B |
| % Change | -0.8 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 12.3 | 16.7 | -14.5 | 11.4 |
| Imports-Goods & Services | $222.6B | $224.8B | $222.3B | $199.0B | $2,333.8B | $1,956.3B | $2,541.0B |
| % Change | -1.0 | 0.6 | -0.2 | 11.9 | 19.5 | -23.0 | 8.1 |
| Petroleum | -5.0 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 31.9 | 32.5 | -44.0 | 37.0 |
| Nonpetroleum goods | -0.2 | 0.4 | -0.7 | 9.2 | 20.8 | -20.9 | 1.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
