Global| Apr 02 2015U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows Sharply to Five-Year Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. foreign trade deficit in goods and services declined to $35.4 billion during February from $42.7 billion in January, revised from $41.8 billion. A deficit of $41.8 billion was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. [...]
The U.S. foreign trade deficit in goods and services declined to $35.4 billion during February from $42.7 billion in January, revised from $41.8 billion. A deficit of $41.8 billion was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Imports declined 4.4% (-3.6% y/y) as petroleum imports were off 15.9% (-46.7% y/y) with lower crude oil prices. In constant dollars, crude oil imports fell 1.6% (-4.1% y/y). The average cost per barrel of crude oil fell to $49.53 (-45.9% y/y) from $58.96. The value of energy-related petroleum product imports fell 25.0% (-47.3% y/y) and their quantity declined 14.4% (-5.2% y/y).
Nonpetroleum imports declined 4.2% (+3.1% y/y), in part reflecting a labor dispute which shut down West Coast ports. The dispute has since been resolved. Imports of autos & parts fell 6.1% (+2.2% y/y) while capital goods imports declined 5.1% (+3.2% y/y). Nonauto consumer goods imports were off 3.1% (+3.8% y/y) and foods, feeds & beverage imports fell 3.1% (+3.8% y/y). Services imports ticked 0.1% higher (4.0% y/y) reflecting a 0.9% rise (11.4% y/y) in travel.
Overall exports fell 1.6% (-1.0% y/y), the sixth decline in the last seven months. Auto exports collapsed 8.7% (-5.7% y/y) and capital goods exports fell 3.6% (+0.4% y/y). Foods, feeds & beverage exports were off 1.5% (-11.9% y/y) but nonauto consumer goods exports increased 7.9% (7.0% y/y). Industrial supplies & materials exports declined 3.8% (-11.6% y/y). Services exports were little changed (+5.6% y/y) as travel exports gained 0.4% (6.9% y/y).
By country, the deficit in goods with China eased to $22.5 billion. Exports fell 11.9% y/y while imports increased 1.6% y/y. The deficit with Japan declined to $4.2 billion, its smallest since early 2011, as exports fell 5.4% y/y and imports were off 12.9% y/y. The trade deficit with the European Union was little-changed at 9.3 billion. Exports gained 6.2% y/y and imports rose 5.2% y/y.
The international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is carried in the AS1REPNA.
Today's comments by Federal Reserve Chair Janet L. Yellen are available here.
| Foreign Trade (Current Dollars) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Trade Deficit | $35.4 bil. | $42.7 bil. | $45.6 bil. | $41.9 bil. (2/14) |
$504.7 | $476.4 bil. | $537.6 bil. |
| Exports (% Chg) | -1.6 | -3.0 | -0.9 | -1.0 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 4.2 |
| Imports | -4.4 | -3.6 | 1.8 | -3.6 | 3.4 | 0.1 | 2.9 |
| Petroleum | -15.9 | -21.9 | 7.2 | -46.7 | -9.7 | -11.0 | -5.5 |
| Nonpetroleum | -4.2 | -1.5 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 5.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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