Global| Apr 12 2011U.S. Trade Deficit Improves Slightly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. foreign trade deficit improved during February to $45.8B versus $47.0B in January, revised from $46.3B reported initially. Expectations had been for $44.0B according to Action Economics. Exports fell 1.4% following a 2.6% [...]
The U.S. foreign trade deficit improved during February to $45.8B versus $47.0B in January, revised from $46.3B reported initially. Expectations had been for $44.0B according to Action Economics. Exports fell 1.4% following a 2.6% January increase. Imports fell 1.7%. In chained 2005 dollars, the overall deficit in goods deteriorated to $49.5B from $46.0B in December.
The primary factor causing last month's deficit improvement was lower oil imports. The 4.4% m/m decline reflected a 7.5% drop in petroleum import volumes (-2.1% y/y) which offset a rise in the per barrel cost of crude oil to $87.17 from $84.34 in January. Twelve months earlier, prices averaged $72.92. The total value of crude petroleum imports rose 18.2% y/y but the quantity fell 1.9%.
Overall imports fell 1.7% (+14.4% y/y). Goods imports fell 1.9% (+16.6% y/y) but when adjusted for higher prices, imports fell 3.0% (+9.9% y/y). Nominal imports of foods, feeds & beverages increased 1.7% (20.0% y/y) though when adjusted for higher prices the y/y gain was only 4.0%. Nonauto capital goods imports fell 5.0% (16.7% y/y) and reversed all of the January increase. Virtually all of the y/y gain reflected higher volumes. Nonauto consumer goods imports jumped 5.6% (14.9% y/y) and all of the annual increase was real. Auto imports fell 10.8% (+20.6% y/y). Again, these changes reflect volumes, not prices.
Total exports fell 1.4% (+14.2% y/y) after a strong 2.6% January increase. The 2.3% drop (+17.2% y/y) in goods exports reflected a 9.3% decline (+10.7% y/y) in autos & parts, a 1.5% drop (+21.9% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages and a 1.4% decline in industrial supplies (+32.3% y/y). Imports of nonauto consumer goods also fell 1.2% in February (+5.8% y/y) but capital goods exports fell 0.8%. Services exports were roughly unchanged (6.5% y/y). Imports of services slipped 0.6% (+3.4% y/y).
By country, the goods trade deficit with China improved to $18.4B as exports rose 23.1% y/y and imports rose 16.8% y/y. (Imports are roughly four times the level of U.S. exports.) The trade deficit with Japan held roughly stable at $5.2B as exports rose 14.5% y/y and imports rose 18.1% y/y. (Imports from Japan are roughly twice the level of U.S. exports.) The trade deficit with the European Union deteriorated to $6.9B as U.S. exports rose 11.8% y/y and imports grew 16.1% y/y. (Imports from Europe are roughly one-third larger than U.S. exports.)
The international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Inequality and Unsustainable Growth: Two Sides of the Same Coin? from the International Monetary Fund can be found here.
| Foreign Trade | Feb | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Trade Deficit | $45.8B | $47.0B | $40.3B | $39.7B (2/10) |
$495.7B | $374.9B | $698.8B |
| Exports-Goods & Services (M/M) | -1.4% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 14.2% | 16.8% | -14.6% | 11.5% |
| Imports-Goods & Services | -1.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 14.4 | 19.7 | -23.3 | 8.0 |
| Petroleum | -4.4 | 10.3 | 17.4 | 18.0 | 32.5 | -44.0 | 37.0 |
| Nonpetroleum | -1.3 | 5.3 | 0.2 | 16.3 | 20.7 | -20.9 | 1.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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