Global| Nov 10 2011U.S. Trade Deficit Improves
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The September foreign trade deficit fell to $43.1B from a revised $44.9B in August, initially reported as $45.6B. Expectations had been for $46.3B according to Action Economics. Exports increased 1.4% (15.9% y/y) after their 0.1% [...]
The September foreign trade deficit fell to $43.1B from a revised $44.9B in August, initially reported as $45.6B. Expectations had been for $46.3B according to Action Economics. Exports increased 1.4% (15.9% y/y) after their 0.1% August uptick while imports rose 0.3% (11.9% y/y). In chained 2005 dollars, the overall deficit in goods improved to $45.4B; real exports rose 1.4% (8.3% y/y) while real imports ticked up 0.3% (2.3% y/y).
Goods exports rose 1.9% (18.1% y/y) during September. Exports of nonauto consumer goods jumped 5.3% (10.8% y/y) but capital goods ticked only 0.3% higher (10.3% y/y). Exports of automotive vehicles recovered 1.7% (18.6% y/y). Services exports slipped 0.2% (+8.9% y/y). Travel exports slipped 0.3% (+10.4% y/y) as fewer individuals visited the U.S. and passenger fares fell 1.8% (+20.6% y/y).
Overall imports inched up 0.3% in September as goods imports also rose 0.3% (13.9% y/y). Imports of industrial supplies rose 1.4% (28.7% y/y) but imports of nonauto consumer goods imports slipped 0.5% (+2.0% y/y), down for the sixth month in the last seven. Imports of capital goods also fell again by 1.0% (+6.7% y/y). Imports of services ticked 0.3% higher and by a slim 2.5% y/y. Travel imports rose 1.1% (+4.6% y/y) as fewer U.S. citizens traveled abroad while passenger fares rose 2.6% (14.1% y/y).
The value of September's petroleum imports inched 0.3% higher but by nearly one-third y/y with higher prices. In constant dollars, petroleum imports rose 1.9% in September but fell 6.0% y/y. The cost of crude oil per barrel edged down m/m to $101.02; in September 2010, the average price was $72.33. During this past September, the quantity of energy-related petroleum imports fell 6.4% y/y.
By country, the goods trade deficit with Mainland China improved slightly m/m to $28.1B. Imports from there increased 3.5% y/y while exports to China rose 17.3% y/y. With Japan, the deficit improved to $5.2B as exports rose 10.1% y/y and imports rose 5.9% y/y. The deficit with the European Union improved to $6.40B with a 14.0% y/y rise in exports to Europe and a 10.9% rise in imports.
The international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics consensus survey, which is carried in the AS1REPNA
| Foreign Trade | Sep | Aug | Jul | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Trade Deficit | $43.1B | $44.9B | $45.6B | $44.0B (9/10) |
$500.0B | $381.3B | $698.3B |
| Exports-Goods & Services | $180.4B | $177.9B | $177.7B | $154.7B | $1,838B | $1,575.0B | $1,842.7B |
| % Change | 1.4 | 0.1 | 3.4 | 15.9 | 16.7 | -14.5 | 11.4 |
| Imports-Goods & Services | $223.5B | $222.8B | $222.3B | $199.7B | $2,333.8B | $1,956.3B | $2,541.0B |
| % Change | 0.3 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 11.9 | 19.5 | -23.0 | 8.1 |
| Petroleum | 0.3 | 1.8 | -6.1 | 31.6 | 32.5 | -44.0 | 37.0 |
| Nonpetroleum goods | 0.2 | -0.7 | 1.5 | 9.9 | 20.8 | -20.9 | 1.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
