Global| Mar 07 2014U.S. Trade Deficit Holds Steady
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. foreign trade deficit remained at $39.1 billion in January versus December's $39.0 billion, last month reported as $38.7 billion. A $38.5 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Both exports [...]
The U.S. foreign trade deficit remained at $39.1 billion
in January versus December's $39.0 billion, last month reported as
$38.7 billion. A $38.5 billion deficit had been expected in the
Action Economics Forecast Survey. Both exports and imports rose
0.6%. In chained 2009 dollars, the deficit in goods improved in
January to $48.5 billion from $49.2 billion. Real exports increased
0.8% (3.1% y/y) while real imports in January ticked up 0.1% (1.9%
y/y).
The constant dollar value of auto exports fell 1.9% (-0.2% y/y) but the real value of nonauto consumer goods exports gained 2.4% (1.0% y/y). Real capital goods exports improved 1.0% (0.3% y/y) but real exports of foods, feeds & beverages plunged 5.1% (+7.5% y/y). Services exports improved 0.3% (4.9% y/y). Travel exports fell 0.6% (+7.5% y/y) as the dollar's value encouraged U.S. visits. Passenger fares declined 2.8% (+4.4% y/y).
The value of U.S. petroleum imports gained 8.9% (-8.2% y/y) in January. The quantity of petroleum product imports rose 9.3% (-4.7% y/y) but the price of crude oil slipped m/m to $90.21, down from the $109.69 high reached in April 2012. In constant dollars, nonpetroleum imports fell 1.0% (+3.0% y/y). Real automotive imports declined 5.6% (+6.6% y/y); real imports of foods, feeds and beverages rose 2.0% (-1.0% y/y); and real capital goods imports improved 0.5% (5.1% y/y). Real nonauto consumer goods imports declined 2.7% (+0.9% y/y). Services imports declined 1.0% (+4.2% y/y). Travel imports were off 2.8% (+4.4% y/y) and passenger fares fell 5.6% (+8.5% y/y).
The January trade deficit in goods with mainland China deteriorated to $27.8 billion. Exports to China jumped 10.4% y/y while imports rose 2.8% y/y. With Japan, the deficit eased to $5.3 billion. U.S. exports improved 8.0% y/y but imports were down 3.2% y/y. The deficit with the European Union lessened to $8.8 billion. U.S. exports increased 6.2% y/y while imports rose 4.0% y/y.
The international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics consensus survey, which is carried in the AS1REPNA.
| Foreign Trade (Current Dollars) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Trade Deficit | $39.1 bil. | $39.0 bil. | $35.2 bil. | $42.1 bil. (1/13) |
$474.9 bil. | $534.7 bil. | $556.8 bil. |
| Exports (%) | 0.6 | -1.7 | 0.8 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 14.5 |
| Imports | 0.6 | 0.2 | -1.3 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 13.9 |
| Petroleum | 9.0 | 2.1 | -11.2 | -6.7 | -10.9 | -5.6 | 30.7 |
| Nonpetroleum goods | -0.6 | -0.4 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 5.2 | 12.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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