Global| Mar 07 2013U.S. Trade Deficit Deteriorates
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. foreign trade deficit during January deepened to $44.4 from $38.1B in December, revised from $38.5B. A $43.0B deficit had been expected. The deterioration was due to a 1.8% increase (-0.9% y/y) in imports set against a 1.2% [...]
The U.S. foreign trade deficit during January deepened to $44.4 from $38.1B in December, revised from $38.5B. A $43.0B deficit had been expected. The deterioration was due to a 1.8% increase (-0.9% y/y) in imports set against a 1.2% decline (+3.3% y/y) in exports. In chained 2005 dollars, the deficit in goods deteriorated to $48.0B. Real imports increased 1.3% (0.3% y/y) while real exports plunged 1.7% (+1.5% y/y).
Leading the jump in imports was a 12.3% gain (-13.1% y/y) in the value of petroleum imports. The quantity of petroleum product imports gained 15.1% m/m but it was down 5.2% y/y. The price of crude oil fell to $94.08 from $95.16. Real imports less petroleum were unchanged in January (+2.1% y/y). Real capital goods imports recovered 1.2% (3.8% y/y) but nonauto consumer goods imports were off 2.0% (+3.1% y/y). Real auto imports fell 2.8% and by 2.8% y/y. Nominal services imports gained 1.3% (0.4% y/y) as travel imports jumped 2.9% (0.5% y/y) and passenger fares surged 3.6% (2.1% y/y).
Real merchandise exports declined 1.7% (+1.5% y/y) as industrial supplies, mostly petroleum products, fell 6.0% (+1.3% y/y). The constant dollar value of motor vehicle exports rose 1.2% (-3.0% y/y); real exports of nonauto consumer goods exports gained 1.7% (6.0% y/y) and real capital goods exports rose 1.2% (1.5% y/y). Services exports slipped 0.3% (+5.5% y/y). Passenger fares rose 1.8% (11.4% y/y) but travel exports fell 1.6% (+10.3% y/y).
By country, the January goods trade deficit with mainland China deteriorated m/m to $27.8B. Exports to China rose 12.1% y/y and U.S. imports increased 8.1% y/y. With Japan, the deficit deepened to $6.1B. U.S. exports fell 8.5% y/y and imports fell 4.9% y/y. The deficit with the European Union was roughly unchanged at $8.6B. U.S. exports fell 4.1% y/y while imports were off 2.4%.
The international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics consensus survey, which is carried in the AS1REPNA.
| Foreign Trade (Current Dollars) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Trade Deficit | $-44.4B | $-38.1B | $48.2B | $52.3B (1/12) |
$539.5B | $559.9B | $494.7B |
| Exports (%) | -1.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 14.2 | 16.7 |
| Imports | 1.8 | -2.6 | 3.8 | -0. | 2.7 | 13.9 | 19.4 |
| Petroleum | 12.3 | -11.0 | -2.5 | -13.1 | -5.5 | 30.7 | 32.5 |
| Nonpetroleum goods | -0.0 | -1.4 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 5.2 | 12.1 | 20.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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