Global| Jun 10 2005U.S. Trade Deficit Deteriorated
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. foreign trade deficit deepened in April to $57.0B and reversed about half of the prior month's m/m improvement which was revised. Consensus expectations had been for a deficit of $58.0B. Total exports doubled the prior [...]
The U.S. foreign trade deficit deepened in April to $57.0B and reversed about half of the prior month's m/m improvement which was revised. Consensus expectations had been for a deficit of $58.0B.
Total exports doubled the prior month's gain and rose 3.0%. Goods exports increased 4.2% (12.7% y/y) to a record high. Exports of capital goods led the gain with a 5.5% jump (12.1% y/y) Exports of advanced technology products fell 4.3% (NSA, +14.2% y/y) after the prior month's one third jump higher. Exports of nonauto consumer goods fell for the second month (+9.1% y/y) but exports of foods, feeds & beverages rose 3.5% (5.3% y/y).
Services exports 0.2% (12.5% y/y).
Total imports recovered all of the prior moth's slump with a 4.1% increase as imports of petroleum products surged 4.3% (48.9% y/y). The average price of crude oil jumped another 8.8% to $44.76 per bbl. (44.4% y/y). Imports of non-petroleum goods recovered all of the prior month's drop with a 5.0% (10.8% y/y) as capital goods imports jumped 7.6% (14.0% y/y).
The US trade deficit with China deteriorated slightly to $14.7B ($162.0B in 2004) due to an 11.8% jump in imports (22.9% y/y). The US trade deficit with Japan improved slightly to $7.2B ($75.2B in 2004) and the monthly trade deficit with the Asian NICs deepened to $0.8B ($21.9B in 2004). The US trade deficit with the European Union eased slightly to $9.3B ($110.0B in 2004).
Yesterday's testimony on the Economic Outlook from Fed Chairman Greenspan can be found here.
Are We Underestimating the Gains from Globalization for the United States? from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
| Foreign Trade | April | March | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Deficit | $57.0B | $53.6B | $48.4B (4/04) | $617.6B | $494.8B | $421.2B |
| Exports - Goods & Services | 3.0% | 1.6% | 12.7% | 12.6% | 4.6% | -3.0% |
| Imports - Goods & Services | 4.1% | -3.1% | 14.4% | 16.6% | 8.5% | 2.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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