Global| Apr 02 2020U.S. Trade Deficit Continued to Narrow in February
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• The foreign trade deficit in goods and services fell significantly. • Imports fell sharply while exports slipped. The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services narrowed to $39.93 billion in February from $45.48 billion in January, [...]
April 2, 2020
• The foreign trade deficit in goods and services fell significantly.
• Imports fell sharply while exports slipped.
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services narrowed to $39.93 billion in February from $45.48 billion in January, revised from $45.34 billion. It was the smallest deficit since September 2016. A $40.0 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Exports slipped 0.4% both m/m and y/y after a 0.6% January easing. Imports fell 2.5% (-4.7% y/y) after a 1.7% decline.
The trade deficit in goods narrowed to $61.2 billion last month as goods exports rose 0.7% (-1.5% y/y). A 4.1% rise (-1.0% y/y) in auto exports was countered by a 4.2% decline (-10.2% y/y) in nonauto consumer goods exports. Imports of goods fell 2.4% (-5.8% y/y). Petroleum imports fell 1.3% (+0.3% y/y) as the price of crude oil fell to $57.24 per barrel. Nonpetroleum imports declined a greater 2.6% (-6.3% y/y). Capital goods imports fell 6.7% (-9.4% y/y) and nonauto consumer goods imports were off 2.1% (-8.4% y/y).
The services trade surplus eased to $21.28 billion and has been fairly stable for a year. A 2.4% decline (+1.6% y/y) in exports reflected a 7.0% fall (-8.3% y/y) in travel which was accompanied by zero change (+3.3% y/y) in charges for intellectual property. Imports of services declined 2.7% (-0.1% y/y) reflecting a 6.2% weakening (-4.9% y/y) in travel imports. The travel ban with China began on January 31, 2020. Intellectual property imports rose 0.3% (2.8% y/y) in February.
The goods trade deficit with China narrowed sharply to $19.7 billion (SA) in February. This compared to a record $43.1 billion deficit in October 2018. U.S. exports to China fell 18.4% y/y while imports fell 30.8% y/y. The trade deficit with the European Union narrowed to $12.6 billion (SA) in February, the smallest deficit in 12 months. Exports to the EU were off 23.2% y/y while imports weakened 15.8% y/y. The trade deficit with Japan narrowed to $5.1 billion (SA) as exports to Japan rose 7.5% y/y while imports from Japan fell 9.2% y/y.
The international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the USINT database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is carried in AS1REPNA.
The Uncertainty Channel of the Coronavirus from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/el2020-07.pdf
(02/19)
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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