Global| Aug 13 2008U.S. Total Import Prices Jumped Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
U.S. import prices overall jumped 1.7% last month after gains between 2.0% and 3.0% during the prior four months. The latest rise nearly doubled expectations for a 1.0% increase. During the last three months import prices have risen [...]
U.S. import prices overall jumped 1.7% last month after gains between 2.0% and 3.0% during the prior four months. The latest rise nearly doubled expectations for a 1.0% increase. During the last three months import prices have risen at a 34.3% annual rate which again was near the quickest since late-1990.
The rise continued to be led by the strength in petroleum prices which jumped 4.0% and the three-month rate of increase amounted to 137%. This month, however, imported crude petroleum prices already are down 14% from July.
Less petroleum, import prices rose the same 0.9% as they did during June. The 9.9% rate of price increase during the last three months was down somewhat from the recent peak rate of gain of 13.0%. During the last ten years there has been a 66% (negative) correlation between the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies and the y/y change in non oil import prices. The correlation is a reduced 47% against a broader basket of currencies.
Prices for industrial supplies & materials excluding oil jumped again in July. The 2.2% surge and the three-month rate of increase of 34.9% (AR) reflected strength in building materials, unfinished metals, chemicals and agricultural prices. These detailed import price series can be found in the Haver USINT database.
Capital goods import prices rose 0.3% after a downwardly revised 0.1% dip in June. The three-month rate of gain of 2.2% was up from last year's low, but down from this spring's highs. Less the lower prices of computers, capital goods prices rose 0.8% and at a 5.6% rate during the last three months. They rose 2.7% last year. Prices of computers, peripherals & accessories fell 0.8% last month and they have been falling at a 6.7% recently, after the 5.1% 2007 decline.
Finally, prices for nonauto consumer goods imports rose 0.3% last month. Here again, the 2.3% rate of increase during the last three months is down from the peak rates of gain earlier this year. The diminished rate of increase for durables of 2.8% is notable.
Total export prices surged again, last month by 1.4% as agricultural prices jumped another 6.7% (39.9% y/y). Nonagricultural export prices rose 0.8% (7.5% y/y), about the same as they did in June.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA) | July | June | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import - All Commodities | 1.7% | 2.9% | 21.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 7.5% |
| Petroleum | 4.0% | 8.9% | 79.2% | 11.6% | 20.6% | 37.6% |
| Non-petroleum | 0.9% | 0.9% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 2.7% |
| Export- All Commodities | 1.4% | 1.0% | 10.2% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.2% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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