Global| Mar 16 2012U.S. Total CPI Rise Strengthens; Core Increase Eases
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumer prices rose during February by the most since last April. The CPI matched expectations and increased 0.4% following a 0.2% January rise. The quicker rate of increase was due to a 3.2% gain in energy prices. Food prices ticked [...]
Consumer prices rose during February by the most since last April. The CPI matched expectations and increased 0.4% following a 0.2% January rise. The quicker rate of increase was due to a 3.2% gain in energy prices. Food prices ticked up a moderated 0.1%. Less both energy and food, consumer prices rose 0.1%, half the expected advance.
Energy prices rose 3.2% (7.0% y/y) as gasoline prices gained 6.0% (12.6% y/y) to the highest level since September 2008. Fuel oil costs increased a not seasonally adjusted 1.7% (7.2% y/y) but gas & electricity prices fell again by 0.8% (-1.0% y/y).
Food & beverage prices notched up 0.1% in February. The 12-month rise of 3.8% remained up sharply from 1.5% during 2010. Strength continued in prices of dairy products (7.8% y/y), meats (5.7% y/y) and cereal products (5.3% y/y). These gains were offset by a 1.9% y/y decline in fruits & vegetables. Nonalcoholic beverage prices rose 3.7% y/y.
For goods alone, less food & energy prices ticked up 0.1%. However, the 12-month increase of 2.0% was up from a 0.3% decline late in 2010. Apparel prices fell 0.9% (+4.2% y/y) and reversed the January rise. Furniture & operations costs ticked rose a quickened 0.3% and by 1.3% y/y after two years when prices fell. Motor vehicle prices increased 0.2% (2.3% y/y) following five consecutive months of decline.
The increase in core service prices eased to 0.1% (2.2% y/y) after nine months of 0.2% gain. Shelter costs (32% of the CPI) rose 0.2% (2.0% y/y). Owners equivalent rent of primary residences ticked up 0.1% (1.8% y/y). That y/y increase compares to a low of -0.3% in early 2010. Education costs rose again by 0.3% (4.4% y/y) and medical care service prices were unchanged (3.4% y/y). Public transportation prices fell 0.4% (+0.2% y/y), down for the fourth straight month. Recreation services costs slipped 0.1% (+1.0% y/y).
The chained CPI, which adjusts for shifts in consumption patterns, rose another 0.4% last month (2.6% y/y). Chained prices less food & energy rose 0.3% and by 2.0% y/y.
The consumer price data is available in Haver's USECON database while detailed figures can be found in CPIDATA. The expectations figure is the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Price Index (%) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | -0.3 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Services less Energy | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| Food & Beverages | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Energy | 3.2 | 0.2 | -1.3 | 7.0 | 15.2 | 9.6 | -18.2 |
| Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | 0.4 | 0.4 | -0.2 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 | -0.5 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.3 | 0.2 | -0.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 1.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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