Global| Aug 30 2011U.S. The Decline In Fuel Prices Runs Out Of Gas
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
During the last several weeks, the early-summer decline in petroleum costs leveled off. The pump price for regular gasoline rose a nickel last week to $3.63 per gallon, its highest in a month. Nevertheless, prices remained down [...]
During the last several weeks, the early-summer decline in petroleum costs leveled off. The pump price for regular gasoline rose a nickel last week to $3.63 per gallon, its highest in a month. Nevertheless, prices remained down thirty-four cents since the May peak. Pump prices usually rise this time of year with increased seasonal demand. To account for this pattern, Haver Analytics calculates seasonal factors. As a result, the adjusted gasoline price rose to $3.48 per gallon. Yesterday, the spot market price for a gallon of regular gasoline fell to $2.74 versus last week's average $2.81.
Crude oil prices slipped last week to $85.05 for a barrel of WTI. They remained down from the late-April peak of $113.93. Yesterday, crude prices rose back to $87.27. Brent crude remained relatively expensive and yesterday sold for $113.37. Prices peaked at $126.21.
Higher prices continued to negatively affect demand for petroleum products. Gasoline demand fell 2.4% on average during the last four weeks versus last year. Demand for residual fuel oil, used for heating, fell 1.8% y/y but distillate demand rose 8.3%. Inventories of crude oil and petroleum products fell 6.3% year-to-year compared to 10.0% growth in the middle of 2009.
Finally, natural gas prices fell w/w to $4.01 per mmbtu. Yesterday, prices fell further to $3.92 and remained down from last year's early-January high of $6.50.
The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy and can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. The daily figures are in DAILY and the gasoline demand figures are in OILWKLY
| Weekly Price | 8/29/11 | 8/22/11 | 8/15/11 | Y/Y% | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Regular Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular) | 3.63 | 3.58 | 3.60 | 35.7 | 2.78 | 2.35 | 3.25 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl.) | 85.05 | 85.35 | 82.90 | 16.6 | 79.51 | 61.39 | 100.16 |
| Natural Gas ($/mmbtu) | 4.01 | 4.00 | 4.01 | 2.1 | 4.40 | 3.95 | 8.88 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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