Global| Jan 14 2014U.S. Small Businesses Optimism Recovers
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Federation of Independent Business reported that its Small Business Optimism Index improved to 93.9 during December and returned to its September level. The latest figure remained down sharply, however, from the May high [...]
The National Federation of Independent Business reported that its Small Business Optimism Index improved to 93.9 during December and returned to its September level. The latest figure remained down sharply, however, from the May high of 94.4. For all of last year the sentiment index rose to 92.4, its highest level since 2007.
An improved 8% expected higher real sales in six months, the highest level of the range during the last nine months. The percentage of firms expecting the economy to improve also rose to -11% and made up declines during the prior two months. Suggesting that labor market conditions remained tight, 23 percent of firms had positions they were not able to fill, the most since before the recession. An increased 8% were planning to increase employment and a lessened 38% of firms found few or no qualified applicants for job openings, the least since May. Twenty six percent of firms were planning capital expenditures in the next 3-6 months, the most of the economic recovery.
One percent of firms were lowering average selling prices, but a steady 19% planned to raise them in the future. A greatly increased 13% planned to increase worker compensation, the most since April 2008.
The most important problems faced by small business were taxes (23%), government requirements (20%), poor sales (14%), insurance cost & availability (10%), quality of labor (8%), competition from large businesses (7%), cost of labor (4%), inflation (4%) and financial & interest rates (2%).
Roughly 24 million small businesses exist in the U.S. and they create 80% of all new jobs. The typical NFIB member employs 10 people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| National Federation of Independent Business | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec'12 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Business Optimism Index (SA, 1986=100) | 93.9 | 92.5 | 91.6 | 88.0 | 92.4 | 92.2 | 91.4 |
| Firms Expecting Higher Real Sales In Six Months (Net %) | 8 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| Firms Expecting Economy To Improve (Net %) | -11 | -20 | -17 | -35 | -15 | -9 | -9 |
| Firms Planning to Increase Employment (Net %) | 8 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 3 |
| Firms With Few or No Qualified Applicants For Job Openings (Net %) | 38 | 44 | 40 | 33 | 39 | 35 | 32 |
| Firms Reporting That Credit Was Harder To Get (Net %) | 7 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 10 |
| Firms Raising Avg. Selling Prices (Net %) | -1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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