Global| May 08 2012U.S. Small Business Optimism Reaches Recovery High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Federation of Independent Business reported that its Optimism Index improved to 94.5 last month from an unrevised 92.5 in March. The latest level matched the economic recovery high of last February. The percentage [...]
The National Federation of Independent Business reported that its Optimism Index improved to 94.5 last month from an unrevised 92.5 in March. The latest level matched the economic recovery high of last February. The percentage expecting credit conditions to ease surged to its highest level of the recovery as did the percentage expecting higher earnings this quarter. Firms planning to increase capital expenditures also surged. Those planning to raise employment recovered to the highest since January while those actually raising employment rose modestly. The percentage expecting the economy to improve also gained moderately. The percentage of firms lifting prices rose to its highest level since June and the percent planning to raise prices was the highest in a year. Offsetting these gains was deterioration amongst those expecting higher real sales in six months and those reporting that inventories were too low.
The most important problems faced by small business were government requirements (a greatly increased 20%), poor sales (a greatly lessened 19%), taxes (18%), inflation (9%), insurance cost & availability (8%), competition from large businesses (7%), quality of labor (6%), cost of labor (4%) and financial & interest rates (3%).
Roughly 24 million small businesses exist in the U.S. and they create 80% of all new jobs. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| National Federation of Independent Business | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr'11 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Business Optimism Index (SA,1986=100) | 94.5 | 92.5 | 94.3 | 91.2 | 91.4 | 89.9 | 86.7 |
| Firms Expecting Higher Real Sales In Six Months (Net %) | 6 | 8 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 1 | -11 |
| Firms Expecting Economy To Improve (Net %) | -5 | -8 | -6 | -8 | -9 | -1 | -0 |
| Firms With One or More Job Openings (Net %) | 17 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 9 |
| Firms With Few or No Qualified Applicant For Job Openings (Net %) | 34 | 32 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 27 | -- |
| Firms Reporting That Credit Was Harder To Get (Net %) | 7 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 14 |
| Firms Raising Avg. Selling Prices (Net %) | 8 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -12 | -20 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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