Global| May 10 2016U.S. Small Business Optimism Improves Slightly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Federation of Independent Business reported that its Small Business Optimism Index increased 1.1% during April to 93.6 following declines in three of the four prior months. An improved 8% of firms reported that now was a [...]
The National Federation of Independent Business reported that its Small Business Optimism Index increased 1.1% during April to 93.6 following declines in three of the four prior months.
An improved 8% of firms reported that now was a good time to expand the business, but expectations for the overall economy remained dour. One percent of firms expected higher real sales in six months, roughly the lowest in five months.
Employment prospects brightened slightly. Eleven percent of firms expected to increase employment, the most in three months; however, a higher 46% of respondents found few or no qualified candidates to fill job openings, up from March's 41% low. A sharply increased 29% of firms had positions they were not able to fill right now. A greater 24% of firms raised worker compensation over the last twelve months, but a lessened 15% were expecting to raise it in the next three months.
Small businesses' pricing ability improved as a lessened 1% of firms were lowering prices. Expectations about the future ability to raise prices, however, eased as a fewer 16% of firms were planning to raise them.
Credit remained slightly more difficult to get as 5% reported trouble, up from 3% at the low. A stable 31% of firms felt satisfied that their borrowing needs had been filled in the last three months.
A lessened 21% of firms indicated that taxes were the single most important problem and a reduced 20% reported government requirements were the largest single problem. A stable 12% felt challenged by the quality of labor. A reduced 11% of firms indicated that poor sales were the largest single problem. An increased 10% reported insurance cost & availability as the largest problem. A stable 8% reported competition from large businesses as the largest problem, and a fairly stable 6% reported the cost of labor was the biggest problem. Inflation was indicated by a steady 2% of respondents.
Roughly 24 million small businesses exist in the U.S. and they create 80% of all new jobs. The typical NFIB member employs 10 people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| National Federation of Independent Business (SA, Net %) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr'15 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Business Optimism Index (1986=100) | 93.6 | 92.6 | 92.9 | 96.5 | 96.1 | 95.6 | 92.4 |
| Firms Reporting Now is a Good Time To Expand the Business | 8 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 7 |
| Firms Expecting Higher Real Sales In Six Months | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 4 |
| Firms Expecting Economy To Improve | -18 | -17 | -21 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -15 |
| Firms Planning to Increase Employment | 11 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 6 |
| Firms With Few or No Qualified Applicants For Job Openings | 46 | 41 | 42 | 44 | 46 | 43 | 39 |
| Firms Reporting That Credit Was Harder To Get | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
| Firms Raising Average Selling Prices | -1 | -4 | -4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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