Global| Jun 05 2008U.S. - Rise in Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Leveled Out
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell slightly last week to 357,000 from an upwardly revised 375,000 during the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for claims to remain unchanged. The four week moving average of [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell slightly last week to 357,000 from an upwardly revised 375,000 during the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for claims to remain unchanged.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell slightly week-to-week to 368,500 (19.4% y/y) and the recent average is up just slightly from April when claims averaged 364,000. These numbers are down from March when initial claims averaged 375,000.
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
In selected states, initial claims in California have been roughly stable (16.3% y/y) since last Fall. In New York claims also have been stable recently (11.7% y/y) and they have trended slightly lower in Ohio (21.1% y/y). In Pennsylvania initial claims recently have trended slightly higher (25.9% y/y) although in Florida the trend also is up (40.8% y/y). The trend in claims has been up sharply in Michigan (62.0% y/y). These figures are available in Haver's REGIONW database.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 16,000 after an upwardly revised 41,000 increase during the prior week. The latest level was near the highest since March 2004. The four week average of continuing claims rose to 3,085,750 and the number provides some indication of workers' ability to find employment.
The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment held steady at 2.3% for the sixth week. That was the highest since 2004.
Yesterday's speech by Fed ChairmanBen S. Bernanke at Harvard University, Cambridge, MA is available here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 05/31/08 | 05/24/08 | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 357 | 375 | 14.8% | 322 | 313 | 331 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,093 | 22.4% | 2,552 | 2,459 | 2,662 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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