Global| Jun 14 2016U.S. Retail Spending Moderates
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total retail sales & spending at restaurants increased 0.5% (2.5% y/y) during May following an unrevised 1.3% April jump. The rise compared to expectations for 0.3% growth in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The increase in motor [...]
Total retail sales & spending at restaurants increased 0.5% (2.5% y/y) during May following an unrevised 1.3% April jump. The rise compared to expectations for 0.3% growth in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The increase in motor vehicle sales cooled to a 0.5% pace (2.1% y/y) following a 3.1% jump. The rise compares to a 0.2% gain in unit auto sales which followed a 5.1% gain. Excluding autos, total retail spending increased 0.4% (2.7% y/y) after a 0.8% rise. A 0.3% increase had been expected.
Spending in the retail control group, which excludes autos, gasoline, building materials and restaurants increased 0.4% (3.5% y/y) after a 1.0% jump.
As prices rose, gasoline service station sales jumped 2.1% (-9.5% y/y) following two months of even stronger increases. Building material store sales fell 1.8% (+3.6% y/y), the fourth decline this year. Purchases at restaurants improved 0.8% (6.5% y/y) following a 0.5% increase.
Within the discretionary spending categories, sporting goods store sales jumped 1.3% (5.2% y/y), after a 0.2% dip. Sales of nonstore retailers built on earlier strength also with a 1.3% increase (12.2% y/y). Clothing & accessory store sales improved 0.8% (-0.5% y/y), the strongest gain this year. Purchases at electronics & appliance stores increased 0.3% (-3.1% y/y), after a 0.2% rise. To the downside, general merchandise store sales eased 0.3% (-0.7% y/y), their third decline this year. Furniture & home furnishings spending fell 0.1% (+0.2% y/y) following a 0.3% rise.
In the non-discretionary spending categories, health & personal care store sales increased 0.6% (8.3% y/y) following three months of stronger gain. Food & beverage store sales also increased 0.5% (2.6% y/y) after a 1.2% jump.
The retail sales figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (%) | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.5 | 1.3 | -0.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.8 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 3.6 | 2.7 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline, Building Supplies & Food Services (Control Group) | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.9 |
| Retail Sales | 0.4 | 1.4 | -0.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 3.8 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 0.5 | 3.1 | -3.1 | 2.1 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 8.3 |
| Retail Less Autos | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 2.6 |
| Gasoline Stations | 2.1 | 2.5 | 3.7 | -9.5 | -19.4 | -2.4 | -1.2 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.8 | 0.3 | -0.4 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 3.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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