Global| Dec 13 2011U.S. Retail Spending Increase Is Disappointing
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
November retail & food service sales increased 0.2% following a little-revised 0.6% October gain. The latest, modest increase disappointed Consensus expectations for a 0.6% rise, according to the Action Economics survey. Nevertheless, [...]
November retail & food service sales increased
0.2% following a little-revised 0.6% October gain. The latest, modest increase
disappointed Consensus expectations for a 0.6% rise, according to the Action Economics
survey. Nevertheless, three-month growth in sales remained solid at 8.7% (AR),
still near its highest since Q1. Sales excluding autos also rose a modest
0.2% and were lower than expectations for a 0.5% rise.
Lackluster spending was in evidence throughout most categories. Motor vehicle sales rose just 0.5% (7.5% y/y) compared to a 2.8% gain in unit sales reported earlier this month. Sales of gasoline slipped 0.1% (+12.9% y/y) despite a 3.9% m/m gain in prices, when seasonally adjusted by Haver. Sales at food & beverage stores slipped 0.2% (+4.6% y/y) and sales of building materials fell 0.3% (+6.2% y/y).
Sales of discretionary items fared better. Sales of furniture, home furnishings & appliances jumped 1.3% (5.4% y/y) and essentially repeated the prior month's gain. Sales at clothing & accessory stores rose 0.5% (3.7% y/y) but that didn't make up the 0.8% October decline. Sales at general merchandise stores rose a modest 0.3% (2.7% y/y) after a 0.1% slip. Excluding both autos and gasoline, retail sales increased 0.3% last month (5.6% y/y) but that was the weakest gain since July.
The retail sales figure are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (%) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 6.7 | 6.4 | -7.0 | -1.2 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 6.6 | 5.7 | -5.5 | 2.1 |
| Retail Sales | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 6.8 | 6.8 | -7.8 | -1.6 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 0.5 | 0.8 | 4.4 | 7.5 | 10.0 | -13.7 | -14.0 |
| Retail excluding Autos | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 6.7 | 6.1 | -6.3 | 2.1 |
| Gasoline Stations | -0.1 | -0.4 | 0.6 | 12.9 | 16.9 | -22.2 | 10.4 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 5.6 | 4.5 | -3.3 | 0.7 |
| Food Service | -0.3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 6.1 | 2.7 | -0.5 | 2.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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