Global| Sep 14 2010U.S. Retail Spending Improves For A Second Month Though Q3 Still Weak
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumers are getting back on their feet. Retail spending rose last month by 0.4% following a little-revised 0.3% July increase. The last was slightly greater-than-expectations for a 0.3% increase and came despite a 0.7% drop in [...]
Consumers are getting back on their feet. Retail spending rose last month by 0.4% following a little-revised 0.3% July increase. The last was slightly greater-than-expectations for a 0.3% increase and came despite a 0.7% drop in spending on motor vehicles and parts. That drop mirrored the decline in unit vehicle sales reported earlier this month. Less autos, retail sales rose 0.6%, an increase that was twice the Consensus expectation. Higher gasoline prices did help fuel the July increase, but less autos & gasoline, sales still rose 0.5%.
The recent good sales news does not fully make up for earlier malaise. So far this quarter, however, sales are roughly even with Q2 when sales rose at a 3.9% annual rate.
Sales at apparel stores showed real strength last month with a 1.2% increase (3.9% y/y) following four months of decline. Also, food store sales rose 1.3% (2.2% y/y) but that followed five months of decline. Sales at general merchandise stores rose 0.4% (3.0% y/y) for the third consecutive month of increase. Sales at electronics & appliance stores fell 1.1% (+4.3% y/y) after a 0.3% July drop. Finally, furniture & home furnishings store sales fell 0.5% (+2.4% y/y) and gave back the July increase.
| Retail & Food Service Sales | August | July | June | August Y/Y | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail & Food Services | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 3.6 | -6.3 | -1.0 | 3.3 |
| Retail Sales | 0.5 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 3.7 | -7.1 | -1.4 | 3.1 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | -0.7 | 1.0 | -1.6 | -1.5 | -12.0 | -13.9 | 0.8 |
| Retail excluding Autos | 0.6 | 0.1 | -0.0 | 4.8 | -5.1 | 2.3 | 3.9 |
| Gasoline | 1.9 | 2.2 | -2.4 | 9.6 | -24.7 | 9.9 | 6.8 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline | 0.5 | -0.2 | 0.4 | 4.3 | -2.4 | 1.0 | 3.3 |
| Food Service | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 5.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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