Global| Aug 12 2004U.S. Retail Sales Up
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Retail sales rose 0.7% last month following a 0.5% June decline, revised from the initial report of a 1.1% slide. Consensus expectations had been for a 1.1% rise in July sales. Excluding motor vehicles & parts dealers sales rose 0.2% [...]
Retail sales rose 0.7% last month following a 0.5% June decline, revised from the initial report of a 1.1% slide. Consensus expectations had been for a 1.1% rise in July sales.
Excluding motor vehicles & parts dealers sales rose 0.2% after an upwardly revised 0.3% June gain, initially reported as -0.2%. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.4% rise.
Sales at gasoline service stations fell 0.5% (18.6% y/y) as gasoline prices dropped 2.9%. So far in August gas prices are down another 1.5% to an average $1.88/gal. Non-auto retail sales less gasoline rose 0.3% (6.8% y/y) in July. That followed a 0.3% rise in June and a 0.4% rise in May1.
Sales of furniture/home furnishings & electronics/appliances rose 0.7% (+6.8% y/y) following an upwardly revised 1.7% June gain. Sales at general merchandise stores jumped 1.0% (+6.4% y/y) but clothing and accessory store sales fell 0.1% (+3.9% y/y), the third down month in the last four.
| July | June | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.7% | -0.5% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% |
| Excluding Autos | 0.2% | 0.3% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 3.1% |
by Tom Moeller August 12, 2004
Import prices rose 0.2% last month following a 0.1% dip in June.The Consensus expectation had been for a 0.4% rise.
Non-petroleum import prices rose a slight 0.1% after being unchanged in June. Capital goods prices fell for the third month in the last four (-1.7% y/y) but capital goods prices excluding computers rose 0.4% (+0.8% y/y), up due to higher prices for electric generating equipment (+0.8% y/y). Non-auto consumer goods prices were unchanged (+0.4% y/y) as they have been for most of this year.
Petroleum prices rose recouped all of the prior month's 0.9% decline and have moved higher in August. The price of Brent crude rose to $43.30 yesterday and has averaged nearly $43.00 versus $38.10 in July.
Export prices rose 0.4%, led higher by a 0.6% jump in nonagricultural export prices (+3.5% y/y).
| Import/Export Prices (NSA) | July | June | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import - All Commodities | 0.2% | -0.1% | 5.5% | 2.9% | -2.5% | -3.5% |
| Petroleum | 0.9% | -0.9% | 29.5% | 21.0% | 3.0% | -17.2% |
| Non-petroleum | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.1% | -2.4% | -1.5% |
| Export - All Commodities | 0.4% | -0.7% | 4.4% | 1.6% | -1.0% | -0.8% |
by Tom Moeller August 12, 2004
Initial unemployment insurance claims unexpectedly fell 4,000 to 333,000 last week and the prior week was up revised slightly. Consensus expectations had been for 340,000 claims.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial jobless claims and the m/m change in non-farm payrolls.
The 4-week moving average of initial claims fell to 339,250 (-14.4% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 5,000 following a downwardly revised 46,000 drop the week prior.
The insured rate of unemployment was stable at 2.3%.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 08/07/04 | 07/31/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 333 | 337 | -16.5% | 403 | 404 | 406 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,896 | -19.4% | 3,533 | 3,573 | 3,023 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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