Global| Feb 14 2006U.S. Retail Sales Surged As Temperatures Warmed
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
January US retail sales surged 2.3% as temperatures posted record highs. The increase by far exceeded Consensus expectations for a 0.8% gain and the December increase was revised down to 0.4% due to a lowered estimate of auto sales. [...]
January US retail sales surged 2.3% as temperatures posted record highs. The increase by far exceeded Consensus expectations for a 0.8% gain and the December increase was revised down to 0.4% due to a lowered estimate of auto sales.
Unseasonably warm temperatures in the U.S. last month were evident in the record low number (662) of heating degree days which were down 22% from the warm January 2005.
Sales by motor vehicle & parts dealers rose 2.9% (4.9% y/y) and the increase about matched the 2.7% m/m rise in unit auto sales.
Discretionary spending surged as consumers went shopping. Apparel store sales jumped 4.2% (10.0% y/y) following marginal declines during the prior two months. General merchandise store sales surged 2.1% (7.4% y/y) after no change in December and sales of furniture, electronics & appliances recovered 2.9% (7.9% y/y) after a downwardly revised 1.0% December decline.
Building material sales certainly benefited from the mild weather and jumped 3.4% (14.7% y/y).
Sales at gasoline stations rebounded following three consecutive months of decline. The 5.5% rise, however, lagged the 6.0% m/m recovery in gasoline prices. In February, gasoline prices have averaged about the same level as during January.
Less gasoline, nonauto retail sales spiked 1.8% (8.3% y/y) and the December increase was revised up to 0.3%.
Sales of nonstore retailers (internet & catalogue) dropped 2.6% (8.3% y/y).
| Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales & Food Services | 2.3% | 0.4% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 4.3% |
| Excluding Autos | 2.2% | 0.2% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 4.7% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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