Global| Apr 14 2010U.S. Retail Sales Strengthen; Core Sales Strongest Since 2006
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Forward momentum is building behind consumer spending. March retail sales rose 1.6%; triple the upwardly revised readings of the prior two months and stronger than the 1.2% increase that had been expected. On a three-month basis sales [...]
Forward momentum is building behind consumer spending. March retail sales rose 1.6%; triple the upwardly revised readings of the prior two months and stronger than the 1.2% increase that had been expected. On a three-month basis sales rose at an 11.0% annual rate. Nonauto sales rose 0.6% but the February increase also was revised up to 1.0% after an upwardly revised 0.6% January increase. The latest gain was near expectations. On a three-month basis the gain in nonauto sales remained strong at 9.3% (AR). These numbers were, of course, helped by moderation in gasoline prices. Nonauto retail sales less gasoline, a better measure of "core" spending, grew 0.7% last month and at a 10.2% annual rate during the last three, the strongest since January 2006.
"Core" discretionary spending improved. Apparel store sales rose 2.3% during March and at a 22.1% annual rate during the last three months. General merchandise store sales also rose a firm 0.6% and at a 11.9% three-month rate. Sales at furniture, home furnishings & electronics stores lagged these gains last month. They were unchanged but were up at a 9.8% annual rate over the last three months. That's improved from the 9.6% decline during all of last year. Furniture sales alone have been rising at a 14.5% rate while sales of electronics & appliances have been rising at a 15.4% rate.
Mirroring the improvement in unit sales, motor vehicle sales improved considerably by 6.6% last month and at a 19.8% rate during the last three. Finally, growth in sales at gasoline service stations fell 0.4% and rose at just a 2.7% rate during the last three months.
Earlier strength in internet & catalogue sales continued to ease. Sales ticked up just 0.2% and the three-month rate of gain backed off to 7.3%, one third the growth earlier this year.
The retail sales data are available in Haver's USECON database
| March | February | January | March Y/Y | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services (%) | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 7.6 | -6.0 | -0.8 | 3.3 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 6.4 | -4.8 | 2.4 | 3.9 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 4.2 | -1.9 | 1.6 | 3.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
