Global| Jun 14 2018U.S. Retail Sales Strengthen
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumers were in a shopping mood last month. Total retail sales increased 0.8% (5.9% y/y) during May following a 0.4% April gain, revised from 0.3%. It was the strongest monthly increase since November. A 0.4% rise had been expected [...]
Consumers were in a shopping mood last month. Total retail sales increased 0.8% (5.9% y/y) during May following a 0.4% April gain, revised from 0.3%. It was the strongest monthly increase since November. A 0.4% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales rose 0.9% (6.4% y/y) after a 0.4% increase, revised from 0.3%. It also was the firmest gain in six months. A 0.5% rise had been expected.
A 2.4% improvement (5.2% y/y) in building materials & garden equipment store sales led the increase as it followed a 1.8% gain. Clothing & accessory store sales also were strong and jumped 1.3% (5.9% y/y), about as they did in April. Purchases at general merchandise stores gained 1.2% (5.0% y/y ) after a 0.3% decline. Furniture & home furnishing store sales increased 0.8% (6.1% y/y) after strengthening 1.4%. Nonstore retailers posted a 0.6% rise (9.6% y/y) in sales after two monthly increases of roughly 1.0%. Sales of motor vehicles & parts rose 0.5% (4.0% y/y) on the heels of a 0.2% gain. The increase compared to a 1.5% decline in unit vehicle sales reported earlier this month. Electronics & appliance store sales improved 0.2% (1.9% y/y) following a 0.1% dip. To the downside were sales at furniture & home furnishings stores which fell 2.4% (+3.5% y/y) and reversed the prior month's gain. Sporting goods, hobby, book & music store purchases declined 1.1% (-0.7% y/y) after a 0.2% slip.
Purchases at gasoline service stations increased 2.0% (17.7% y/y) as the pump price of gasoline rose.
Sales of nondiscretionary items were mixed last month. Health & personal care store sales gained 0.5% (2.9% y/y) as they did in April. Food & beverage store sales were fairly steady (3.6% y/y) following a 0.5% increase.
Individuals recovered an interest in eating out last month. Food service & drinking establishment sales increased 1.3% (5.1% y/y) after a 0.3% fall.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (% chg) | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 2.6 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 4.2 |
| Retail Sales | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 7.2 |
| Retail Less Autos | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| Gasoline Stations | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 17.7 | 8.8 | -5.7 | -17.6 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 1.3 | -0.3 | 1.1 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 5.6 | 8.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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